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2024 Predictions: Do We Hit the Iceberg? Corruption, Chaos, Conflict – Fourth Turning
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https://rumble.com/v464lai-how-to-be-the...-2024.html

2023 – The Year the World Saw the U.S. Emperor as Naked… and Grotesque
Strategic Culture Foundation
December 25, 2023


Seeing the naked truth is usually the first step before we can go on to realize the truth of beauty and decency. We might hope that the world is taking that first step.

American President Joe Biden likes to talk about “inflexion points” when he is lecturing about world affairs and the supposed superiority of the United States. This year is indeed an inflexion point.

It was the year that the entire world saw the truly hideous and criminal nature of U.S. power.

Washington’s fuelling of the futile conflict in Ukraine and the despicable slaughter in Gaza is a wake-up call for the entire world. The United States stands barefaced and grotesque as the primary purveyor of war. There can be no doubt about that. For many it is shocking, scandalous and frightening.

Tragically, it seems, for the world, every year’s end is an occasion to witness and lament conflicts, wars and suffering over the preceding 12 months. Often the causes of wars and suffering are seemingly unfathomable.

However, this year seems to be unique. The year ends with a horrendous massacre in Gaza that is unprecedented and perpetrated by Israel with the full support of the United States. The scale of deliberate mass killing in Gaza makes it a genocide. The fact that this abomination is occurring at Christmas time when the world is supposed to celebrate the divine birth of Jesus Christ – the Prince of Peace – in the very place where he was born some 2,000 years ago makes the abomination all the more profane and damning.

What is particularly wretched is that the heinous destruction of children is happening in full view of the world. There is no remorse or pretence. It is full-blown premeditated murder done with cruelty and sickening impunity.

Virtually the whole world is horrified by the devastating, relentless violence and absolute violation of international law. The butchery by the Israeli regime cannot in any way be rationalized by the previous attack on Israel by Palestinian militants on October 7. Those killings by Hamas have been cynically used as a pretext for the subsequent and ongoing annihilation of Palestinian civilians.

This genocide could not happen without the crucial support of the United States for the Israeli regime. Financially, militarily and diplomatically, Washington is sponsoring the horror in Gaza as well as the Occupied West Bank.

This week saw the U.S. once again obstructing calls at the United Nations for a ceasefire and the urgent supply of humanitarian aid to more than two million people. The World Food Program has declared a catastrophic famine in the coastal enclave after more than 70 days of bombing and blockade by the Israeli regime. More than 20,000 people – mainly women and children – have been slaughtered with up to 7,000 more missing, presumably dead. Israeli troops are carrying out mass executions of terrified and traumatized human beings, according to UN rights monitors.

The United States is arming Israel to the hilt and enabling it. U.S. President Joe Biden has pointedly refused to join international demands for a ceasefire. The United Nations has voted by an overwhelming majority for a cessation of the violence. Washington has repeatedly rejected the world’s pleas because the Biden administration is obscenely amplifying Israeli lies and distortions. “Unwavering, unshakable support” is how the White House arrogantly boasts about it without a hint of shame that it is self-indicting.

Tens of thousands of tonnes of munitions have been flown to Israel to carry out “indiscriminate bombing” (Biden’s own admission). One-tonne bunker-buster bombs have been dropped deliberately on refugee camps and hospitals. And still, the Pentagon shamelessly refuses to impose any red lines on the use of its munitions.

This genocide has Israeli fingers on the triggers but it is ultimately an American-sponsored genocide. Based on Nuremberg principles, Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu would be both in the dock, accompanied by Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, Lloyd Austin and their counterparts in Tel Aviv.

If there were previous international doubts about Washington’s systematic criminality, the whole world knows for certain now.

Significantly, too, American citizens are also repulsed by the barbarity and the fact that their government is an accomplice in a historic crime against humanity. Polls show that Biden is one of the most unpopular presidents ever, and his culpability for the genocide in Gaza is a primary reason for the widespread disgust, especially among younger Americans.

As things stand, there is a fair chance that 81-year-old incumbent Democrat will lose the presidential election in 2024 – less than 11 months away. Not that any of the Republican contenders are qualitatively better. American politics are in a crisis of chaos.

But this is not just about Biden or other individual U.S. politicians. The United States government and much of the corporate-controlled media stand full square behind Israel’s crimes. That has always been the case since the Israeli state was formed in 1948 through Washington’s skulduggery at the newly established United Nations, together with the old colonial power, Britain – the author of the infamous and treacherous Balfour Declaration that instigated Zionist dispossession of the indigenous people in the Holy Land, or what London called its Palestinian Mandate.

Decades of duplicity and dissembling as a peace broker in the Middle East have been blown away by the horrendous massacre that has culminated at the end of 2023. Israel is carrying out a Final Solution that is comparable to the atrocities of Nazi Germany. The Zionist regime has cynically used the Holocaust against Jews as a cover for its genocide against Palestinians. And many decent Jews around the world, including Holocaust survivors, are rightly mortified by the depraved association exploited by the Zionist regime.

What is happening in Gaza may be seen as a shocking revelation for the world of historic proportions. It is an eye-opener of the violence and lawlessness that the U.S. emperor has been systematically engaged in since it became the dominant world power almost a century ago. Following the Second World War and the defeat of European fascism – largely by the Soviet Union – the United States has taken up the fascist mantle, albeit unspoken and disguised with pretensions claims of democratic virtue. No other nation has waged as many wars and conflicts over the past eight decades as the U.S. The death toll from American imperialism runs to tens of millions of people with victims on every continent.

The conflict that erupted in Ukraine in February 2022 is another manifestation of Washington’s imperialist machinations. That war is approaching its third year and shows no sign of ending because the U.S. continues to weaponize the Neo-Nazi regime in Kiev, a regime that Washington and its European NATO allies installed in 2014 through a coup d’état. The hostilities in Ukraine – the biggest in Europe since the Second World War – were fomented by the United States as a proxy war to defeat Russia. The war could have been avoided if the U.S. and its European vassals had negotiated a diplomatic solution to NATO’s expansionist threat to Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not want a war in Ukraine. Respected American commentators like John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs and Scott Ritter have all confirmed with extensive analysis that Washington and its European allies are primarily responsible for creating the conflict – one that has cost the lives of as many as 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers and the displacement of 10 million civilians across Europe. Nearly $200 billion in Western public money has been wasted so far. Biden and the European Union want to donate another $100 billion to prolong this futile war.

America’s wars were always officially rationalized with some seeming plausible cause or mission. In the early decades of the Cold War, Washington claimed to be defending the “Free World” against Communist aggression in Korea, Vietnam, Africa and Latin America. When the Cold War supposedly ended in 1990-91 after the collapse of the Soviet Union due to its internal political problems, we then saw a spate of U.S. wars around the world against drugs, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and – most absurdly – defense of human rights.

The latest war in Ukraine is purportedly to defend democracy and sovereignty (of a Nazi Waffen SS-adulating regime in Kiev installed by the CIA!).

Nonetheless, the genocide in Gaza is the culmination, the final act. This is where all the history of U.S. crimes and fraudulence as a “noble exceptional democratic leader” finally comes unstuck.

It is an infernal climax for a global power, arguably the world’s first and last imperialist global hegemon. The whole of humanity can now see that all the American rhetoric and vanity is nothing but an ugly lie. The emperor is naked in all his crimes. The blood of children on his hands, his mouth drooling with lies. It was always so, but now universally evident.

One might ask, where do we go from here? Despite the abominable cruelty, suffering and misery, one can still hope that humanity will eventually find a way to live in peaceful coexistence. By respecting all those who abide by international law and basic moral precepts. Arguably, most of humanity is willing and capable of living in peace.

But to achieve that peace there must be no illusions and lies. There must be accountability and genuine atonement.

U.S. imperial power is damned. There’s no going back or reform. The capitalist economic system – evolved as oligarchic fascism and its two-party puppet show – driving imperialist barbarism must be called out and overturned. Biden is doomed, and Trump and so on are just more false prophets.

Seeing the naked truth is usually the first step before we can go on to realize the truth of beauty and decency. We might hope – for the sake of peace and ending much of the suffering – that the world is taking that first step.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/12/no_a...grotesque/

Break the Cycle: In 2024, Say No to the Government’s Cruelty, Brutality and Abuse
By John & Nisha Whitehead
December 27, 2023


“The greater the power, the more dangerous the abuse.”—Edmund Burke

Folks, it’s time to break the cycle of abuses—cruel, brutal, immoral, unconstitutional and unacceptable—that have been heaped upon us by the government for way too long.

Here’s just a small sampling of what we suffered through in 2023.

The government failed to protect our lives, liberty and happiness. The predators of the police state wreaked havoc on our freedoms, our communities, and our lives. The government didn’t listen to the citizenry, refused to abide by the Constitution, and treated the citizenry as a source of funding and little else. Police officers shot unarmed citizens and their household pets. Government agents—including local police—were armed to the teeth and encouraged to act like soldiers on a battlefield. Bloated government agencies were allowed to fleece taxpayers. Government technicians spied on our emails and phone calls. And government contractors made a killing by waging endless wars abroad.

The president became more imperial. Although the Constitution invests the President with very specific, limited powers, in recent years, American presidents have claimed the power to completely and almost unilaterally alter the landscape of this country for good or for ill. The powers amassed by each successive president through the negligence of Congress and the courts—powers which add up to a toolbox of terror for an imperial ruler—empower whoever occupies the Oval Office to act as a dictator, above the law and beyond any real accountability. The presidency itself has become an imperial one with permanent powers.

The cost of endless wars drove the nation deeper into debt. Policing the globe and waging endless wars abroad hasn’t made America—or the rest of the world—any safer, but it has made the military industrial complex rich at taxpayer expense.

The courts failed to uphold justice. Time and time again, the Supreme Court failed to right the wrongs being meted out by the American police state. A review of critical court rulings over the past decade or so, including some ominous ones by the U.S. Supreme Court, reveals a startling and steady trend towards pro-police state rulings by an institution concerned more with establishing order and protecting the ruling class and government agents than with upholding the rights enshrined in the Constitution.

The Surveillance State rendered Americans vulnerable to threats from government spies, police, hackers and power failures. Thanks to the government’s ongoing efforts to build massive databases using emerging surveillance, DNA and biometrics technologies, Americans became sitting ducks for hackers and government spies alike. Billions of people have been affected by data breaches and cyberattacks. On a daily basis, Americans were made to relinquish the most intimate details of who we are—our biological makeup, our genetic blueprints, and our biometrics (facial characteristics and structure, fingerprints, iris scans, etc.)—in order to navigate an increasingly technologically-enabled world. The Department of Homeland Security, which has led the charge to create a Surveillance State, has continued to deploy mandatory facial recognition scans at airports and gather biometric data on American travelers. Police were gifted with new surveillance gadgets. The Corporate State tapped into our computer keyboards, cameras, cell phones and smart devices in order to better target us for advertising. Social media giants such as Facebook granted secret requests by the government and its agents for access to users’ accounts. And our private data—methodically collected and stored with or without our say-so—was repeatedly compromised and breached.

Mass shootings claimed more lives. Mass shootings have taken place at churches, in nightclubs, on college campuses, on military bases, in elementary schools, in government offices, and at concerts. In almost every instance, you can connect the dots back to the military-industrial complex, which continues to dominate, dictate and shape almost every aspect of our lives.

The rich got richer, and the poor went to jail. Not content to expand the police state’s power to search, strip, seize, raid, steal from, arrest and jail Americans for any infraction, no matter how insignificant, the courts continued their practice of jailing individuals who are unable to pay the hefty fines imposed by the American police state. These debtors’ prisons play right into the hands of those who make a profit by jailing Americans.  This is no longer a government “of the people, by the people, for the people.” It is fast becoming a government “of the rich, by the elite, for the corporations,” and its rise to power is predicated on shackling the American taxpayer to a debtors’ prison guarded by a phalanx of politicians, bureaucrats and militarized police with no hope of parole and no chance for escape.

“Show your papers” incidents skyrocketed. We are not supposed to be living in a “show me your papers” society. Despite this, the U.S. government has introduced measures allowing police and other law enforcement officials to stop individuals (citizens and noncitizens alike), demand they identify themselves, and subject them to patdowns, warrantless searches, and interrogations.

Free speech was dealt one knock-out punch after another. Protest laws, free speech zones, bubble zones, trespass zones, anti-bullying legislation, zero tolerance policies, hate crime laws and a host of other legalistic maladies dreamed up by politicians and prosecutors (and championed by those who want to suppress speech with which they might disagree) conspired to corrode our core freedoms, purportedly for our own good. On paper—at least according to the U.S. Constitution—we are technically free to speak. In reality, however, we were only as free to speak as a government official—or corporate entities such as Facebook, Google or YouTube—allowed. The reasons for such censorship varied widely from political correctness, safety concerns and bullying to national security and hate crimes but the end result remained the same: the complete eradication of free speech.

Police became even more militarized and weaponized. Despite concerns about the government’s steady transformation of local police into a standing military army, local police agencies continued to acquire weaponry, training and equipment suited for the battlefield. There are now reportedly more bureaucratic (non-military) government civilians armed with high-tech, deadly weapons than U.S. Marines.

Schools turned into prisons. So-called school “safety” policies, which run the gamut from zero tolerance policies that punish all infractions harshly to surveillance cameras, metal detectors, random searches, drug-sniffing dogs, school-wide lockdowns, active-shooter drills and militarized police officers, turned schools into prisons and young people into prisoners.

The government waged a renewed war on private property. The battle to protect our private property has become the final constitutional frontier, the last holdout against our freedoms being usurped. We no longer have any real property rights. That house you live in, the car you drive, the small (or not so small) acreage of land that has been passed down through your family or that you scrimped and saved to acquire, whatever money you manage to keep in your bank account after the government and its cronies have taken their first and second and third cut…none of it is safe from the government’s greedy grasp. At no point do you ever have any real ownership in anything other than the clothes on your back. Everything else can be seized by the government under one pretext or another (civil asset forfeiture, unpaid taxes, eminent domain, public interest, etc.).

The plight of the nation’s homeless worsened. In communities across the country, legislators adopted a variety of methods (parking meters, zoning regulations, tickets, and even robots) to discourage the homeless from squatting, loitering and panhandling. One of the most common—and least discussed—practices: homeless relocation programs that bus the homeless outside city limits.

The government waged war on military veterans. The government has done a pitiful job of respecting the freedoms of military veterans and caring for their needs once out of uniform. The plight of veterans today is America’s badge of shame, with large numbers of veterans impoverished, unemployed, traumatized mentally and physically, struggling with depression, suicide, and marital stress, homeless, subjected to sub-par treatment at clinics and hospitals, left to molder while their paperwork piles up within Veterans Administration offices, and increasingly treated like criminals— targeted for surveillance, censorship, threatened with incarceration or involuntary commitment, labeled as extremists and/or mentally ill, and stripped of their Second Amendment rights—for daring to speak out against government misconduct.

The Deep State took over. The American system of representative government was overthrown by the Deep State—a.k.a. the police state a.k.a. the military industrial complex—a profit-driven, militaristic corporate state bent on total control and global domination through the imposition of martial law here at home and by fomenting wars abroad. When in doubt, follow the money trail. It always points the way.

The takeaway: Everything the founders of this country feared has come to dominate in modern America.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, if freedom is to survive at all, “we the people” must refuse to allow the government’s abusive behavior to be our new normal.

There is nothing normal about egregious surveillance, roadside strip searches, police shootings of unarmed citizens, censorship, retaliatory arrests, the criminalization of lawful activities, warmongering, indefinite detentions, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture, police brutality, profit-driven prisons, or pay-to-play politicians.

Let’s not take the mistakes, carnage, toxicity and abuse of this past year into 2024.

As long as we continue to allow callousness, cruelty, meanness, immorality, ignorance, hatred, intolerance, racism, militarism, materialism, meanness and injustice—magnified by an echo chamber of nasty tweets and government-sanctioned brutality—to trump justice, fairness and equality, there can be no hope of prevailing against the police state.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/12/no_a...and-abuse/

This Year, Americans Have Become Hungrier, Lonelier And More Desperate
By Michael Snyder
December 27, 2023


The ominous trends that we see all around us are taking us somewhere.  Needless to say, 2023 was not a good year for our country.  Hunger and homelessness have been absolutely exploding, the suicide rate just continues to go even higher, and there is chaos in the streets on an almost nightly basis.  It is in this environment that the election of 2024 will happen.  I expect election season to add an additional level of strain to our society, and I don’t think that our society will be able to handle it.  We are headed for a nightmare, and at this point everyone should be able to see that.

When conditions deteriorate, it is often those at the bottom of the economic food chain that feel it first.

And right now food banks all over the nation are dealing with a tsunami of hunger…

Food bank leaders from all corners of the country tell USA TODAY their neighborhood pantries are serving more people while using less resources, as economic pressures continue to ravage the budgets of low-income Americans and service providers alike.

Since pandemic-era boosts to government food aid ended earlier this year in many states, families are turning to food banks to close a gap in need that feels like it has no end in sight.

Susannah Morgan, the president of Oregon Food Bank, says that she is literally witnessing “the worst rate of hunger in my career”…

“This is the worst rate of hunger in my career,” said Morgan, who has worked at food banks in Boston, San Francisco and Anchorage, Alaska. “It’s so large, it’s hard to wrap your head around.”

I don’t know what I have to do to convince some people that things really are this bad.

I keep sharing fact after fact in my articles, but some people out there are just not convinced.

One out of every five children in the U.S. does not have enough food to eat, but the reality of the suffering that is now taking place just isn’t sinking in for many of those that are still living the high life.

Meanwhile, homelessness in the U.S. is increasing at the fastest rate ever recorded…

The United States experienced a dramatic 12 percent increase in homelessness as soaring rents and a decline in coronavirus pandemic assistance combined to put housing out of reach for more Americans, federal officials said Friday.

About 653,000 people were experiencing homelessness during the January snapshot. That’s the highest number since the country began using the yearly point-in-time survey in 2007 to count the homeless population.

There are many out there that feel that such people need to “get a job” or “work harder”, but the truth is that most Americans are living on the verge of economic disaster because most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

At the same time, Americans continue to get even lonelier.

According to USA Today, “Americans are lonely and it’s killing them”, and at this point things are so bad that this crisis is being called “a new epidemic”…

America has a new epidemic. It can’t be treated using traditional therapies even though it has debilitating and even deadly consequences.

The problem seeping in at the corners of our communities is loneliness and U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy is hoping to generate awareness and offer remedies before it claims more lives.

“Most of us probably think of loneliness as just a bad feeling,” he told USA TODAY. “It turns out that loneliness has far greater implications for our health when we struggle with a sense of social disconnection, being lonely or isolated.”

It is especially bad during this time of the year.

There are so many people out there that are deeply, deeply hurting because they are so lonely.

They are trying their best to face a world that has gone completely mad, but that can be really difficult to do when you don’t have anyone to lean on for support.

Speaking of a world gone mad, retail theft has absolutely skyrocketed in many of our largest cities since 2019…

Crime-ridden New York City has seen the biggest impact with a 64 percent increase in retail theft, followed by Los Angeles with a 61 percent jump and Virginia Beach, Virginia, which has seen a 44 percent rise.

Each month, more Americans are descending into poverty and more Americans are turning to crime.

And it certainly doesn’t help that vast hordes of illegal immigrants are constantly being added to the mix.

Chaos in the streets has become an almost constant state of affairs in this country, and this year in Oakland there was even rioting on Christmas Eve.

Of course our leaders continue to exist in a bubble where none of these problems constitutes a serious crisis.

To them, everything must be just fine because they are doing such a wonderful job.

When he was recently confronted about the reality of the economic crisis that we are now facing, Joe Biden bluntly told the press to “start reporting it the right way”…

President Biden criticized news coverage of the U.S. economy as he faces growing backlash from voters over his handling of inflation.

In brief remarks Saturday before boarding the presidential helicopter, Biden expressed confidence in the economy and ripped the reporters for the way it has been portrayed.

“All good. Take a look. Start reporting it the right way,” Biden said when asked about his economic outlook for 2024, according to a transcript released Sunday by the White House.

He wants the press to continue to spin things in a way that will make him look good as they always have done in the past.

But we have reached a stage where all of the charades are finally crumbling.

Conditions are bad now, and they are going to get even worse in 2024.

So brace yourself for what is ahead, because we are going to experience so much chaos during the year that is in front of us.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/12/mich...desperate/

What Really Happened in 2023 and What Comes Next
By Doug Casey
International Man
December 29, 2023


International Man: As we approach the end of the year, let’s take a step back, look at the Big Picture, and put 2023 into perspective so we can better understand what may come next.

Significant financial, economic, political, cultural, and geopolitical developments occurred in 2023.

On the cultural front, 2023 may be the year that the tide started to shift against the woke insanity.

BlackRock’s Fink dropped ESG. Woke movies continue to bomb at theaters. Bud Light, Target, and Disney continue to feel the pain of deliberately alienating their customer base.

What’s your take on the cultural developments in 2023?

Doug Casey: There are always reactions to major trends. These things are worth noting, but considering the virulence of the woke movement, the reaction has been tepid. There’s always a rearguard fighting for things as they are. And that’s wonderful because the Wokesters want to overturn the entire culture much the same way as the Jacobins overturned it in revolutionary France, the Bolsheviks overturned the culture in Russia, the Red Guards in China, or Pol Pot did in Cambodia.

The Wokesters are potentially just as dangerous because their way of thinking is everywhere in the West. They’re similar to the movements I’ve just mentioned in that they’re stridently against free speech, free thought, free markets, tradition, and limited government—nothing new there. But they’ve weaponized gender and race as well. They’re virulent, humorless, and puritanical. They see themselves as the wave of the future, but they’ve only repackaged the notions of Marx, Lenin, Stalin, and Hitler.

My view is that the Wokesters hate humanity and hate themselves. They’re dishonest, arrogant, and entitled. Look at the current scandal involving the diversity-hire presidents at Harvard, Penn, and MIT. They’re shameful embarrassments. The fact their boards of trustees installed these fools shows how deep the rot goes.

The Woke have ingrained psychological/spiritual aberrations. They don’t just control academia, finance, entertainment, and the media. They also dominate the State’s apparatus. Which means they basically have the law on their side.

Perhaps ESG is being de-emphasized by Blackrock, the new vampire squid, but that’s only because they fear losing money more than they value their beliefs. The more pernicious DEI remains a major cultural trend.

Where will it end?

Wokism is more than a passing fad. There’s a good chance it will end with a violent confrontation between people who have culturally conservative views and those who want to destroy Western Civilization and upset the nature of society as we know it.

International Man: 2023 was a year of major geopolitical developments.

It became evident to even the mainstream media that the war in the Ukraine was not going well for NATO.

There was also the Hamas attack and the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

Azerbaijan defeated Armenia to reclaim a long-disputed territory.

Saudi Arabia welcomed Syria back into the Arab League, ended the war in Yemen, restored diplomatic relations with Iran, joined the BRICS countries, and expanded its economic ties with China.

These are just a few of the most prominent geopolitical events of 2023.

What do you make of the geopolitical situation and where things are heading?

Doug Casey: The end of US hegemony over the world in all areas is becoming obvious. The world resents being bullied and controlled by Washington, DC.

They realize that the US government is bankrupt and is living entirely on printed money. Its military is bloated and more expensive than the US can afford.

While it’s bloated, it’s also being gutted, unable to recruit new soldiers and sailors. It’s easy to see why that’s the case. They see pointless wars fomented everywhere. The type of people who traditionally join the military are disgusted by the woke memes circulating through the services. White males, who have always been the backbone of the military, are appalled at being actively discriminated against.

US hegemony is ending financially, economically, and militarily.

It’s obvious when you see that Biden and Harris, two utterly incompetent, ineffectual fools, are the nominal heads of the government. Not to mention all the degraded and psychologically damaged people in the cabinet. Of course, nobody has any respect for the US anymore.

The US hegemony of the last hundred years is on its way out. And as the old order changes, there are going to be upsets. The US will leave a vacuum that will be filled by other forces.

In fact, the US Government is the biggest danger to the world today. It’s not providing order. By sticking its nose into everyone else’s business everywhere, it’s promoting chaos. Its 800+ bases around the world are provocations. The carrier groups that it has wandering around are sitting ducks with today’s technology. The US is the main source of risk in the world, not safety.

US military spending is really just corporate welfare for the five big “defense” corporations, which build weapons suited for fighting the last war or maybe the war before the last war. For instance, a missile frigate or destroyer guarding a carrier might carry 100 vertically-launched anti-aircraft missiles at $2 million each. Each missile might succeed in shooting down a $10,000 drone. But what happens when the enemy launches 200 drones at once? The chances are the US loses a $2 billion destroyer, if not a carrier.

The US government is finding that they’re not only disliked but disrespected by countries and people all over the world. They’re increasingly viewed as a paper tiger. Or the Wizard of Oz. When they lose the fear factor, it’s game over.

International Man: In 2023, the US continued the trend of more political polarization.

What were the most consequential events on the US political front, and what do you think comes next?

Doug Casey: Let me reemphasize that the Jacobins who control Washington, DC, have the same psychological makeup as past revolutionaries I’ve mentioned. These people are incapable of changing their minds or reforming. I think they’ll do absolutely anything they can to retain power.

Meanwhile, traditional Americans in red states see that Trump is being railroaded with lawfare to derail his campaign. They’re angrier than ever, justifiably. The red people and the blue people really hate each other at this point—and can’t talk to each other.

The country has been completely demoralized as traditional values have been washed away. It’s now very unstable.

The coming election, should we actually have one, will be not just a political but a cultural contest. Culture wars are especially dangerous in the midst of a financial collapse and economic collapse.

International Man: The projected annual interest expense on the federal debt hit $1 trillion for the first time in 2023.

Americans are still paying for the rampant currency debasement during the Covid hysteria as the price of groceries, insurance, rent, and most other things continued to rise in 2023.

It looks like a recession is on the horizon.

What are your thoughts on economic developments in 2023 and your outlook for the months ahead?

Doug Casey: As an amateur student of history, it seems to me that the US has been moving away from the founding principles that made it unique for over a hundred years. I’m 77. I’ve watched it happen firsthand for much of that time.

The trend has been accelerating. The country is heading towards a massive crisis because it’s lost its philosophical footing. The result is going to be a really serious depression. I call it the Greater Depression.

The spread between the haves who live in multi-million dollar houses and the have-nots who live in tents isn’t new. After all, Jesus said, “The poor you will always have with you.” What’s new is that the middle class is being impoverished. What’s left of the middle class is deeply in debt—student debt, credit card debt, car loan debt, mortgage debt. And if they’re not lucky enough to have a house with mortgage debt, they’re renting. And rents have gone up so rapidly that if the average guy has an unforeseen $500 expense, he can’t pay it.

That augurs poorly for consumption. It’s said, idiotically, that the American economy rests on consumption. It’s idiotic because it should be said that it rests on production. But I’m not sure the US produces that much anymore. Most of the people who “work” basically sit at desks and shuffle papers. Few actively create real wealth.

On top of that, the country is vastly over-financialized.

The bond market has already largely collapsed, but it can get a lot worse as interest rates head back up to the levels that they were in the early 1980s and beyond.

Much lower stock prices are in the cards, both because of high interest rates and because people won’t be consuming such massive quantities of corporate produce.

The real estate market rests on a foundation of debt. It can easily go bust as interest rates go up. We’re already seeing this with office buildings across the country. And, of course, these office buildings are financed by banks. Banks are going to see a lot of defaults on loans they’ve made.

Meanwhile, bank capital invested in bonds has eroded because bond prices fall in proportion to the degree rise in interest rates, which have gone from close to zero to 5% or 6%. If banks had to mark their loans and capital investments to the market, most would already be bankrupt.

Can the government paper all these things over by printing yet more money? I suppose. But at some point very soon, the dollar will lose value very rapidly; it will be treated like a hot potato. They’re caught between a rock and a hard place.

International Man: This year, we saw the price of gold hit a record high, uranium reached $81.25 per pound, and Bitcoin more than doubled as it entered a new bull market. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up around 21% year to date as of writing.

What are your thoughts on what happened in the financial markets in 2023 and what could come next?

Doug Casey: Unfortunately, the US central bank, the Fed, has a gigantic amount of influence over the markets. They can employ “quantitative easing,” which means printing money—and “quantitative tightening,” which means decreasing the money and artificially raising interest rates.

They have many hundreds of Ph.D. economists on staff, but all these people operate on phony Keynesian theories of the way the world works. The consequences of building an economic system on a foundation of paper money and gigantic amounts of debt are potentially catastrophic.

At this point, the economy’s on the razor edge. If they push the print button and hold it down too long, we could go into a runaway inflation. Or, to tamp down inflation, they might raise interest rates and contract the money supply, which might set off a 1929-style credit collapse.

We’re caught between Scylla and Charybdis at this point. And I don’t believe it’s a question of a soft landing or a hard landing. It’s a question of how devastating the crash landing will be.

I hope they can wring one more cycle out of all this because I personally prefer good times to bad times, even if they’re artificial good times, because the bad times are going to be very real.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/12/doug...omes-next/

2024: Navigating the Storm
By Helena Glass
December 30, 2023


John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4wLXNydzeY

2024 is shaping up to be about Iran and China.  Ukraine is dead.  Israel has extended its bombing campaign to include Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.  All while claiming Iran is the instigator of everything – sort of like a Trump did it mantra.  Israel has been bombing Palestine for 70 years.  Each time, the motive is the same – to displace as many as possible so as to reduce the population – a Bill Gates agenda.  There are now 7 million Palestinian refugees across the globe out of a population of just 14.3 million.  Lebanon alone houses 5 million.

Still, good ole hawk Lindsey Graham, is calling for the US to bomb Iran.  Surely that will solve the problem…  Of course he wanted us to bomb Russia and will probably call for us to bomb China should Taiwan come to the forefront before the US is ready to relinquish control.  Putting all our ducks in a row, the only thing keeping us tied to Taiwan is ‘chips’.    In addition to the Ohio Intel plant that will be the largest chip manufacturer in the world when it comes onboard in 2025, Intel has announced a new plant to be built in – Israel at a cost of $25 billion.  The advent of AI is the main driver.  And obviously, Israel is ready onboard for Intel in the midst of a “WAR”?

Nvidia (Pelosi owned stock) hit a valuation of $1 trillion this week as the chip revolution in AI will drive and reshape silicon valley.  One product of Nvidia dubbed H100 GPU packs 80 billion transistors and sells for $30,000.  Chips are used for storage, cloud computing, games, graphics, crypto mining, computers, electric grids, cars, etc…  Every piece of technology is now completely reliant on ‘chips’.

Taiwan filled the void and will continue to do so until we create our alternative, at which point the US won’t give a fark if China reabsorbs the tiny country off its own shore.  It’s all money.

What would we gain in reigniting a Middle East War with Iran central?  Nothing of value – just more military spending to boost weapon supplies and sales back to the Middle East.  While our dear traitor, Slava Ukraine Kinzinger, justifies the billions of funding for Ukraine by relaying the obvious – the money is actually spent to revitalize US weapons stockpiles while we send Ukraine our broken and obsolete – US Taxpayers actually give money to the government to give to the Military Industrial Complex – so they can build weapons to sell to other countries for a profit.

Taxpayers are thus subsidizing profits for private companies – without gaining from the sales…  A Ponzi scam at its height.  Not much different than the fact that US Taxpayer funds are allocated to Soros NGO’s which pay NO Taxes – so that Soros can bring in illegal immigrants and pay for riots.  Lovely.

When Rand Paul suggests that America needs a flat tax, I have to interject – would I want my accountant to surgically remove my tonsils?  I think NOT!

So, here is my 10 point RESET:    1.  A 40% pay reduction for every member in Congress.  2.  Each Congressional member is allocated 1 aid with a salary pegged to GDP PP.  3.  ALL NGO’s are taxable at a flat rate of 25%.  4.  Reduce number of Federal government agencies to ten.  Establish a fixed budget per agency that can only increase by 3% per year maximum.  5.  Eliminate all national security subset organizations including CSIS, NED, CIA, NSA, etc…  6.  Use the National Guard on a rotation basis to cover our borders and natural disasters.  7.  Return the Military to its core – no bases outside of the US.  Rehab every usable base in the US to meet 3rd level criteria.  8.  Each state shall have one governor and zero senators.  9.  Before troops can be sent to instigate a war anywhere – a vote by The People must be made.  10.  Eliminate all subsidies, all sanctions, and all pensions – everyone is on the same playing field.

When Soros declared that the last two countries that would fall by his hand would be America and Russia.  When the globalization agenda picked up steam and suddenly we lost track of everything.  Soros set about to achieve his Agenda.  He tried.  Diligently so.  But he lost Russia and he is precipitously close to losing the US.  Only due to one miscalculation. Social Media.  His brain didn’t wrap around that particular phenomena and it will cost him the entire Gamut.  And he hasn’t the Power to undo what is known.    His solution?  Pretend it never happened….  Pathetic.

So, that means he is going to double down on America 2024 as a last hurrah to prove he isn’t a complete failure and save his ego before he dies.  The Big Money is looking to the other side already.  Hedging their bets as to who will come out alive.  They could care less about Soros’ ego.

What are the odds?  Who is in favor?  Because, in the end, nothing will change unless everything changes.  It IS A RESET – just not the one envisioned by the Bolsheviks.  A RESET where we keep our money.  And Laissez Faire in ALL regulations – buyer beware – no law suits.  Just figure it out.  It could work.  Just a bit of mental realigning.

It may be that 2024 is a deciding factor in the game after the election for decades to come.  When the Bolsheviks came to the Soviet Union to initiate assassinations and coups, the Russian realm numbered 150 million people in 1917.  At the time of the Revolution there were only 200,000 members of the Bolsheviks who ultimately took control over 150 million.  For 70 years.

There are many positives that could prevail in 2024 if we stay united.  Recognize the ultimate goal and let go of this media enquirer mentality. 

Bottom line:  Trump is the Candidate.  They have yet to reveal their ace card – next Spring they will announce a Biden replacement.  The media will be consumed with the audacity!    And something else will happen behind the scenes – like an errant bomb on Iran.  Blame it on Russia.  Realize the gaff.  Backtrack the gaff.  And soon the bomb is forgotten.

IF Iran reacts, then the spin will put them as the initiator.    Russia will warn them to remain -placid.  They will comply.  US will become infuriated and attempt a False Flag.

Bottom Line – Trump is not on the same plane with every thought process of the MAGAts, we are a society that expects only perfection.  Not even Jesus would pass the perfection test demanded today.  A lion pushed into his Den is a lion ready for battle.  We must be Lions.  A Lions Pride.  Trump is the ONLY leader that can endure the onslaught and still win.  Loyalty is an honor, it is a gift, it should be the solidarity that unites.

Let’s Be That.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/12/no_a...the-storm/

https://rumble.com/v45i7r3-the-most-biza...s-far.html

https://rumble.com/v45tc59-trump-evolves...media.html

2024 Will Be The Year Of The Prepper: Those Unprepared For The Myriad Of Catastrophes Facing Americans Will Not Survive The Coming Upheaval
December 31, 2023
By Susan Duclos -  All News Pipeline

People are prepping, stocking up on supplies in case of a catastrophe, more than ever and it appears that trend will continue into 2024.

With the possibility of a global nuclear world war, civil unrest, the Biden regime's lawfare campaign against Donald Trump, and the targeting of "MAGA" Americans by Biden's FBI, food costs that continue to be much higher than under Trump, Americans living paycheck to paycheck, Republicans being "swatted" at a high rate recently, and more, there is more reason than ever to be prepared for disaster.

Globally there is a high risk of World War III, with nuclear nations like China and Russia becoming more hostile to the U.S. and much of the world tired of American leaders thinking they have the right to dictate to the rest of the world, which indicates that the U.S. would likely see more damage and loss of life in any WWIII scenario.

Our "woke" military has reached "crisis levels of low recruitment" in early 2023, and by the end of the year had still come up far short of recruitment goals.

That last link above asks "Why don’t young Americans want to join?", completely ignoring the "wokeness" factor, the gay recruitment videos, the transgender nonsense within the military, and the lowering of physical standards and battle readiness. Joe Biden has even given away so much ammunition and weapons that the U.S. military is unprepared for any war, much less a world war.

What is meant by the "transgender nonsense" above is the fact that after Biden began occupying the White House, the Department of Defense (DOD) issued a release which stated that the U.S. military would provide "gender transition" care.

    The revised policies prohibit discrimination on the basis of gender identity or an individual’s identification as transgender, provide a means by which to access into the military in one’s self-identified gender provided all appropriate standards are met, provide a path for those in service for medical treatment, gender transition, and recognition in one’s self-identified gender, and seeks to protect the privacy of all Service members and to treat all Service members with dignity and respect.

This point is not made as part of transphobia, but rather battle readiness, because gender transition surgeries put that member out of commission for at least six weeks, and American taxpayers are funding them.

War is not the only issues facing America, as the Biden regime is using lawfare against the leading opponent of the opposite party, Donald Trump, for the 2024 presidential election, angering nearly half the nation.

A HOT CIVIL WAR ON THE HORIZON
We are in the midst of a semi-cold civil war right now, with some violence, but the blood is not flowing freely in the streets as of yet. The U.S. is like a powder keg right now, and the Biden regime, liberal activist judges and prosecutors, are throwing gas and matches at it, just waiting for the entire nation to burn.

The FBI is targeting "MAGA" supporters as domestic terrorists. Think about that for a moment. MAGA simply means "Make America Great Again," and those that believe in doing that are now direct targets of the U.S. Government under Biden.

What do they use as their excuse for targeting conservatives? See below:

    The anonymous official, one of over a dozen current or former government officials specializing in terrorism interviewed by Newsweek, claimed that the FBI is attempting to prevent any domestic terrorism that could lead to an incident like the January 6 Capitol storming.

Really?  They ignore the fact that George Floyd liberal rioters that literally tried burning cities down. They ignore the recent "swatting" attempts against Republicans and a constitutional lawyer calling them out for the lawfare against Trump. The FBI ignore civil unrest from anti-Israel pro-Hamas supporters in America.

    Law enforcement responded to Turley’s Fairfax County home after an individual placed the bogus emergency call.

    The Fairfax County Police Department confirmed that the caller falsely said somebody was shot at Turley’s address.

    The incident comes one day after Turley spoke out against “swatting” during an interview with Fox News Digital.

This is a dangerous practice that can get someone killed, yet there have a slew of them in recent days, a couple on Christmas Day.

There was more violence in just the George Floyd riots alone, than on January 6, 2021, yet the FBO is not targeting the liberals involved, or Black Lives Matter groups that committed most of the violence. We aren't seeing special categories created by the FBI against those that participated in the most violent or dangerous events, just MAGA supporters, citing Jan. 6.

So, yes, a hot civil war is on the horizon, and it isn't going to take much more for it to blow up.

AN ANGRY NATION....
Republicans, some Democrats and Independents are also angry as hell about the economy. While the media claims it is thriving under Joe Biden, many Americans cannot even afford three meals a day, since grocery prices have not returned to what they were before Biden's policies were enacted.

90% of Americans are concerned with grocery and food prices. 87% with overall inflation, because while inflation has lowered, prices are still much higher than when Trump was in office. Other issues concerning the majority of Americans can be seen in the graph above.

While 62% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, the Biden regime has spent more than $75 billion on Ukraine since February 2022, rather than using said funds to help those in need right here at home.

    The Joe Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute. (This figure does not include all war-related U.S. spending, such as aid to allies.)..

Despite the fact that the majority of Americans oppose more U.S. funding for Ukraine, Joe Biden just announced another $250 million military aid package to Ukraine, and has a much larger request for Ukraine held up in Congress.

The point here is that Americans are mad, whether it is liberals angry about....well everything these days, conservatives angry at the Biden regime for the state of the nation and targeting Trump supporters, and everyone angry at the cost of living and the state of the nation, tensions are high and extremely ripe to take a cold civil war and turn it hot.

BOTTOM LINE
Prepping has become mainstream to a point, meaning both the right and the left are starting to prep, although the term prepping is perhaps not exactly correct for the liberals doing it, since most seem to think that 60 or 90 days is enough until "the government" comes to help.

In the event of a world war, economic collapse, or mass civil unrest, the government will not be showing up like a knight in shining armor, and it will be up to Americans to fend for themselves.

https://allnewspipeline.com/2024_Will_Be...repper.php
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#2
Can We Predict 2024?
By Karen Kwiatkowski
January 1, 2024

Despite all of my disastrously wrong past predictions, I cannot resist sharing my thoughts on the coming year.  Before I start, let’s accept that state-created pain, state hypocrisy, and state-funded murder around the world – much of it funded and enabled by the US Government – will continue apace.

Like a game of musical chairs, about midway through, when it dawns on the players that chairs really are being removed – panic levels start to rise.  We have been watching this growing panic in the long-planned decimation of Gaza, and the plan to follow this Palestinian genocide with an army of US-made Caterpillars and Israeli demands that the rest of the world chip in generously to help rebuild Gaza for Zionism.

With 6 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe, and 4 to 8 million unknown people flooding into the US since Biden took office, the Zionist coalition – already concerned about what has been and will be exposed in Bibi’s corruption trial –  figured a couple million Palestinians diaspora’ed out to a dozen or so different countries, was a now or never kind of thing.  With state-sponsored ethnic cleansing, timing is so very important.

Ukraine is also experiencing the panic of chairs being pulled, and it looks like their government workers may not be paid next month.  This US-contrived, -designed and -incited war, where Ukrainians would die so that Joe Biden could teach Vladimir Putin a thing or two about border security and military strategy has worked out well for the MIC. The big capital corporations, in light of banking and other economic realities, seem just a little less willing now to enter into a public-private rebuild of what the neocons wrecked just east of Poland and south of Belarus.

Wider ramifications of the Obama-Biden gamble in Ukraine a weakened EU made weaker, a spastic and poorly-led NATO made more spastic and poorly-led, and the world moving further away from not only the US dollar, but US trade altogether, and made better for it.  Meanwhile, the inability of the US military machine to supply and resupply even a small war was made crystal clear.

The Red Sea security initiative says it all – several announced country participants declined the offer to participate under US leadership.  Whether the risk of being targeted by a Houthi drone is higher than the risk of being accidentally damaged by Houthi drones aimed at US or Israeli targets is moot.  No one in their right mind wants to assist the US and Israel in a planned genocide.

Between the rough state of the US and her remaining allies, with the engine of the US economy seized up, the US isn’t going to accomplish much in 2024. Record-breaking US government debt, US economic depression in an age where the majority of “employed” in the country don’t create real value, out-of-balance demographics driving the class and culture wars – none of this looks like its going to be fixed any time soon.  That we have a presidential election scheduled adds to the drama, and 2024 will no doubt be a year conducive for popcorn sales as the whole world watches.

So all of this noted, here’s where I’d put my play money:

– Israel and its US lapdog cease to be listed as global influencers.  If the US and Israel were Youtube channels, no one is watching, and they would not be worth monetizing.  Pariah, shmariah.

– An organic BDS movement evolves and goes global.  If AIPAC and the AJC were concerned about the BDS movement when it began in 2005, the shitstorm created by Israel and US actions after the Netanyahu-enabled Hamas attack of October 7th is creating a global BDS on steroids. Israel as a Zionist ethno-state will shrink economically, and Israelis and Israeli businesses will begin a decade of emigration by Jews who wish to be prosperous and live in peace.

– Ukraine reforms itself in a drastically smaller geographic and demographic form, under military rule by someone other than Zelensky. Poland “helps” and the Biden Administration becomes permanently toxic in Europe.

– Taiwan observes the curse of US military assistance, the unreliability of the dollar, and acts in its own national interest.

On the US domestic front, it feels like 2024 will be a year of surprises… but will it really?  For years now, the main US trend is political division and economic and class diversification.  While the government media enterprise assaults us daily, most of us are not watching, and what seems to catch our collective eye is the kind of information, and infotainment, that reflects who we are, rather than how the government sees us.  For a lot of Americans who we are is kind of stressed, kind of silly, looking for a laugh, and trying to build something for ourselves and our extended families.  This entirely rules out receptivity to the USG messaging regime, and it also rules out spending our time taking in the public-private-DEI-ESG-woke-anti-white-pro-guilt-gender-confused lecture circuit.  When we can choose to hear, watch or read whatever we want, state-produced information and propaganda is always last on our list.  Everyone knows this, which is why the state is obsessed with controlling and monitoring what we can read, watch and listen to, and what we say, write and communicate.  But the reality is, as any kid and every parent knows, in a world of many choices, the forbidden is often the most interesting.

The USG screwed up the COVID experiment, and if I could deconstruct where they went wrong (beyond developing and releasing an illegally engineered bioweapon, injecting another experimental one into 70% of the population, sacrificing small businesses to Walmart and Amazon, closing churches in the name of government mandates, money dumping, and lying about everything) it would be in the collective national denial of certain treatments (like ivermectin) and the collective national mandate of other treatments (like ventilation).  In this one federal set of mandates the USG simultaneously devalued the judgment and training of every single medical professional in the country, and made every layman his or her own doctor – a kind of perfect medical marxism, where equality reigns, and we all serve each other to the best of our forcibly depleted or inadvertently expanded skillset in medicine.  It was truly a Harrison Bergeron moment, and as Kurt Vonnegut might have expected, the USG intended more than anything to kill or imprison those who refused to be equal.

Rochelle Walensky, Mandy Cohen, Diana Moon Glampers – same character, same goal.

If only they had waited until a CBDC, but nobody’s perfect.

I am prefacing my US predictions for 2024 on the reality of an America filled with people who don’t believe, trust or even listen to the government.  For those inside of the Washington beltway, including the two major political parties leadership, this may seem outlandish.  The CIA understands perfectly, because they are in the business are targeting and tracking centers of power and there are many west of DC.  The US consists of several distinct and independent regions, the smallest of which are bigger than most countries on the planet. Secession is coming, but not next year.  All of this said, I’m expecting:

– More local political empowerment, driven by financial necessity– like popular resistance to taxation, illegal immigration, the regulatory state, local crime, and wasteful, inappropriate, ineffective and unsafe public schooling. Big liberal city pushback against their own woke policies is going to spread to the smaller towns and cities, and gain momentum.  Government frivolity and excess in a time of fiat failure will be a primary target of the pitchfork crowd – and this target is colorblind, race-free, and class-uniting despite what government media will report.  Local citizen empowerment combined with chronic distrust of, and disobedience to, central authorities, are a necessary precursor to revolution and secession.  The federales understand this better than we ourselves.

– Big chips on a lot of shoulders, for good or for bad.  The empowered woke, the coddled lazy, the working poor, the government class and the entrepreneurial class have all been carrying chips on their shoulders, itching for a fight.  Some of those chips are going to get knocked off, and people will cry about it.  Politics in 2024 will shape how some of these chips fall, but it will have an ordering effect, and will seem like justice when the dust settles.

– A presidential election?  Because the majority of people in the country still believe in voting and they are hoping to relieve their frustration by casting a ballot, I expect an election, unfair and poorly monitored, as usual, complete with dirty tricks and creative accounting.  I doubt a false flag nuclear explosion is 2024’s October surprise, but the chance is not 0%.  The CIA knows actuarially Biden and Trump should be with us for 7 more years from now, and it probably has its own plans, and will, as always, manage the autopsies. Neither man is economically knowledgeable but Trump’s instincts about people, while clearly flawed, are better than those of Biden, who increasingly seems to be either very angry or thinking about a small child somewhere.  I think Biden will fold, as will Trump, taking both of them out of the running for “the sake of the nation.”  We will face a toned-down four-way election between RFK, Jr, Trump as a write-in, corrupt warmonger Nicki Haley as the GOP establishment candidate, each of whom will narrowly lose to Democrat Phil Murphy, Democrat Governor of New Jersey, setting the stage, unlike in the 1860 election, for a “mostly peaceful” dissolution of the USA.  I hope I’m wrong about who wins, and that we get a chance to see what a really angry and newly-wise Trump will do to his deep state enemies.  AITA for saying that?

– Global technology advances will continue to outpace those of the surveillance state, and the surveillance agencies in the US will prove unable to truly serve the security state, to deliver the votes, or to improve federal management of the masses.  Technology and innovation advantages liberty more than it does the state.  We will see new examples of this in 2024 and beyond.

– The USG and the Fed will not surprise anyone in the upcoming year.  Money printing, Congressional spending and can-kicking never stopped, and will quietly accelerate, because election.

–  Lastly, 2024 will be a year where we reminiscence not about last year, or the last decade, but about how we lived 100 years ago – and internet searches on “becoming Amish” will spike by mid-summer.

Happy New Year!  I can’t wait to see what it really brings!

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/01/kare...dict-2024/

2024: Do We Hit the Iceberg or Finally Change Course?
By J.B. Shurk
January 2, 2024


It is difficult for any American who loves this country to watch its political, economic, and military “leaders” destroy it.  Part of the political theater propping up the illusion of electoral choice in this Kabuki dance that the State-controlled press calls “democracy” is the lie that officeholders from different parties are at each other’s throats.  More Americans than ever finally see through this convenient fiction and understand that a single Uniparty acts as a guild of political thespians who are the face of a permanently entrenched national security Deep State that runs the show. 

Furthermore, more Americans than ever finally recognize that the United States is not a country that supports free markets but rather a central bank-directed financial cartel that regulates labor, commodities, and transactions so stringently that there is nothing outside of the government’s (or Wall Street’s) economic control.  Taxing Americans’ labor, forcing them to use an inflation-driven paper currency, and encumbering their ownership of real property are not policies for encouraging middle class prosperity; they are chains meant to create debt-anchored, government-dependent slaves.

For many decades, it seemed as if a vanguard of American communists were pushing these destructive policies and operating as a kind of fifth column from within an otherwise pro-America governing class.  Whether that fifth column was always much larger than it appeared or whether it simply succeeded, through strategic patience, in conquering America’s political and economic institutions and converting them to its advantage, there is no question that America’s internal demolition is now an all-of-government operation.

You do not hand a private central bank the power to print dollar bills, unless you expect those dollars to become untethered from any gold standard.  You do not print and spend money without budgetary constraints, unless you never intend to pay down those debts.  You do not engage in such a monetary Ponzi scheme that artificially raises the prices of stocks and real properties while depreciating the common person’s meager savings, unless you plan on precipitating the mother of all economic crashes in the future.  You do not start seeding the idea of a new central bank digital currency, unless you intend to take advantage of that economic crash and transition the whole population onto a mandatory system of government welfare. 

When our political and economic leaders have complete control over what is in your digital wallet, they will have complete control over what you say, what you do, where you go, and what you own.  After having sabotaged our economic system for decades, they will nonetheless shamelessly blame its engineered collapse on the “systemic unfairness” of free market capitalism and insist that they are saving the world with a digital currency capable of promoting “sustainable equity.”  It will be nothing less than full-blown communism.

Certainly the military and wider national security apparatus have thrown their lots in with the communists.  When your nation is bankrupt, you do not cavalierly jump from one war to the next — especially when the strategic value of kinetic operations is questionable, the risk of escalation is high, and the only sure winners are defense companies with office supply budgets larger than the GDP of small countries and the transnational investment houses that make a fortune from organized slaughter.  If you are actually concerned with protecting national security, you do not aid and abet illegal immigration, transport tens of millions of unknown foreigners (each carrying unknown diseases and unknown motivations for their illegal intrusion) into unsuspecting small towns throughout the U.S., and then force those communities to feed and house the interlopers by dipping into their already-insolvent municipal budgets.  If you are actually interested in winning wars, you do not designate patriotic, flag-waving Americans as potential “domestic extremists,” while running commercials seeking to enlist psychologically unstable “they/thems” who are more interested in cutting off their own genitalia than putting the pointy end of a blade into an enemy combatant.  If you are actually committed to preserving the U.S. Constitution, you do not put the whole American population under warrantless surveillance and excuse that grotesque affront to the Bill of Rights as necessary for “national security.”  You do not conspire with social media companies, search engine monopolists, financial institutions, and Internet service providers (none dare call it fascism!) to censor Americans’ free speech, punish them for their unapproved thoughts, and intimidate them into silence.  You do not squash dissent and label political opponents, “terrorists.”  These are the actions of totalitarian police States — not the policies of any nation that could honestly claim to be “free.”

D.C.’s permanent ruling class and its Marxist globalist allies throughout the globe are dedicated to one goal: eliminating national cohesion and erecting an authoritarian and technocratic super-State in its place.

Not one institution exists to help ordinary Americans.  The Pentagon is “woke” and ineffective.  The FBI-Gestapo is singularly invested in preserving the Deep State’s power.  The Federal Reserve is using “green energy”-induced inflation to transfer as much wealth as possible from poor and middle class Americans to the uber-elite before intentionally crashing the global economy.  The Department of Homeland (in)Security is using our open and undefended borders to flood the country with foreign terrorists and soldiers.  Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, and the rest of the World Economic Forum’s faculty of “Dr. Evils” continue to promise more viral pandemics, Internet outages, and electric grid failures.  The criminal “justice” system excuses violent crime as necessary to fight “white supremacy” (for Democrats, two wrongs always make a right).  An entirely partisan Department of (in)Justice continues to punish J6 protesters for accurately identifying the 2020 election as tainted by mail-in-ballot fraud (lie, cheat, steal — the Uniparty way).  And with the whole world watching, the U.S. government seeks to lock up Donald Trump before he can return to the presidency.

As we enter 2024, there is widespread public agreement about two things: (1) something big is about to happen, and (2) whatever that something is, it sure as hell won’t be pretty!  While it may get pretty ugly pretty fast, though, there is an upside to what’s coming: as a country, we can finally pull this disgusting Band-Aid off, face reality for what it is, and stop pretending.  However bad this year might prove to be, it might also be tremendously liberating. 

Why?  Because, one way or another, things will soon change.  For too long, those who “run” America have had two things in common: (1) a hatred for individual freedoms, and (2) an even deeper hatred for the one country on the planet explicitly founded on their protection.  As a national security surveillance State superseded the U.S. Constitution, leftists have controlled academia, journalism, the legal system, and entertainment.  They have shoved anyone with a working brain out the door while assuring themselves that they deserve their privileged social positions and unearned accolades.  They tell themselves that they are smart and enlightened, but anybody capable of self-examination knows this not to be true.  Leftists are not happy people.  They have not figured out any special meaning to life because, to them, life is meaningless.  In other words, for too many years, a collection of the most depressed, least curious, morally relativistic, and intellectually homogenous people on the planet have been given pampered positions in exchange for acting as nihilistic and narcotic-dependent sea vessel captains willing to steer America into an iceberg of decline and failure. 

As that iceberg approaches, Americans who have long objected to this national suicide may at last get their say.  People with little left to lose often rise, sometimes lead, but rarely obey.  Perhaps 2024 will be remembered as the year Americans finally changed course and saved themselves.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles...ourse.html

Corruption, Chaos, Conflict – Fourth Turning Erupts in 2024
By Jim Quinn
January 4, 2024


“Americans today are increasingly polarized, as if they constitute two separate nations.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.” – Thomas Paine – The American Crisis

Thomas Paine wrote these words 247 years ago, in the most historic year in our history – 1776. That was during the first American Fourth Turning. It’s not a coincidence we are now in the midst of our fourth Crisis period in U.S. history, as they arrive like clockwork every 80 years or so, the length of a long human life. Paine’s American Crisis began in 1773, ignited by the Boston Tea Party and the British reaction to this revolutionary act of defiance. Our current Millennial Crisis was triggered by the Federal Reserve/Wall Street/Government created financial disaster in 2008 and subsequent outrageously desperate, totalitarian, un-Constitutional, extreme acts designed to keep the ruling class in power, while impoverishing and enslaving the masses in a surveillance state techno-gulag.

The polarization and fractures have become too deep to repair. The country, and the western world in general, are hurtling towards a darkening abyss of civil conflict, financial collapse, global war, societal chaos, and loss of life on a scale grander than WW2, the Civil War, and the American Revolution combined. Our technological advancements have outstripped our ability to intelligently, thoughtfully, and humanly, use this power for the benefit of future generations. The destructive deficiencies of human nature, such as: greed, desire for power, hatred, arrogance, resentment, and an unlimited supply of self-delusion, continue to plague our world, as only the most power-hungry psychopaths rise to the highest levels of government, business, religion, and finance.

The immense technological power in the hands of egocentric, megalomaniacal, sadistic, billionaires and their highly paid toadies, lackeys, and apparatchiks, inserted throughout the media, government, academia, banking, and corporations, has pushed the world to the brink of Armageddon. We are entering the sixteenth year of this Fourth Turning. Based on history, we can expect a climax of this Crisis in the 2030-to-2032-timeframe. The path to that climax is guaranteed to be violent and unforgiving.

Neil Howe, in his new book – The Fourth Turning Is Here – tries to decipher the likely path of the remainder of this Fourth Turning. Having read the original Fourth Turning, his joint project with William Strauss (who died in 2007), in 2004, I was curious to read Howe’s update on their generational theory of history. I met Howe for lunch in 2012 during the Occupy Wall Street protests and he correctly assessed that movement as a meaningless left-wing attempt to push their communist like agenda.

The first book, written in 1997, showed no favor towards the right or left. It was a no-nonsense assessment of economic facts and historical precedents. There were no political agendas, which I now attribute to Strauss’ influence, because Howe certainly lets his political views creep into his writings. This isn’t surprising, as his consulting business is dependent upon Wall Street banks and mega-corporations. He owes his living to the establishment; therefore he won’t sh*t where he eats.

Howe’s current left leaning political views seep into his current tome. He quotes Zelensky as some sort of patriotic leader, while portraying Putin as a thug, without giving any context regarding the 2014 CIA initiated overthrow of a democratically elected Ukraine president. He bought the covid scamdemic hook, line, and sinker, with no skepticism about the coordinated lockdowns and false narratives about masks, social distancing, and vaccines that never worked, but continue to kill. He believes the climate change bullshit narrative.

His tone regarding Trump is clearly negative and he believes the 2020 election was perfectly legitimate. He expounds about the January 6 “armed” insurrection, without one word about the FBI, Pelosi, and the Washington establishment planning, coordinating, and exacerbating the fake “insurrection”. His brain-dead accusations of violence by Trump supporters, while completely ignoring the murder and mayhem created by the BLM and ANTIFA terrorists, clearly reveals his allegiances.

Be that as it may, there is no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater. His acumen regarding possible scenarios and outcomes are well thought out. Howe makes some very interesting predictions regarding the remainder of this Fourth Turning, providing some very dark possibilities, along with some more unlikely optimistic outcomes. His research reveals Americans think the American dream is no longer attainable, civil discord will destroy our democratic institutions, and our global standing is in decline. All three fears are legitimate and coming to fruition as we speak. Howe captures the current situation in this passage:

“In the middle of a Crisis era, the social mood has reached an unstable balance of hope, fear, and dizzying uncertainty. Americans are like a compressed spring at the point of maximum potential energy. Internally secure yet externally threatened, they are ready for propulsive public action.”  – Neil Howe – The Fourth Turning Is Here

Events beyond their control are leading them towards their rendezvous with destiny and the speed has begun to accelerate, with 2024 slated to be a historic date in history, on par with 1776, 1861, and 1941. The exact events which will make 2024 historic are obscured by a dense fog of uncertainty, but we can make some educated guesses based upon our current economic circumstances, Biden’s open border purposeful invasion, upcoming elections wrought with fraud, ongoing treasonous governmental and judicial operations, and deepening global conflicts already underway.

Of the three possible paths laid out by Howe, the most likely appears to be the animosity between factions eventually leads to armed conflict within the country. Political dominance by one party is highly unlikely, with the country rallying around the flag against an external enemy. It is more likely our many external foes will take advantage of our internal conflict to further weaken our global hegemony. All paths lead to war at this point.

I sense the delusional masses, still entranced by their electronic gadgets, unending access to debt, NFL fantasy leagues, and oblivious to the lessons of history, are frantically trying to fend off reality by shopping, eating out, partying at bars, and pretending all is well. Critically assessing their true situation is too painful for these snowflakes and gender bending enthusiasts. Their virtue signaling wokeness is about to meet the brutal reality of a violent Fourth Turning climax.

“And however much these paths may seem to differ from one another, they all move toward the same destination. They all push the nation toward a violent struggle requiring maximum mobilization. They all culminate in the Ekpyrosis, which will bring the era into a decisive consolidation, climax, and resolution.” – Neil Howe – The Fourth Turning Is Here

The drivers of this Fourth Turning, as documented in 1997, continue to be debt, civic decay, and global disorder. They have propelled this Crisis since the outset in 2008 and are accelerating towards an explosive collision in 2024. The national debt at the outset of this Fourth Turning was $10 trillion. It had taken 219 years to accumulate $10 trillion of debt, with the majority amassed during this century. It has taken just fifteen years to pile an additional $24 trillion of debt on the backs of Americans and future generations, if there are future generations.

This doesn’t even take into account the $200 trillion of unfunded welfare and pension obligations tallied up by your government leaders. At the same time, the Federal Reserve increased their balance sheet from $900 billion to $9 trillion. With the rapid rise of interest rates in the last year, if banks were required to mark their assets to market, as they did prior to 2009, the entire banking industry, including the Too Big To Fail Wall Street behemoths, would be insolvent, along with the Federal Reserve. Does this seem sustainable to you?

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Luckily for our teetering empire of debt, delusions, and deceptions, they can change the rules whenever it suits their purposes to extend and pretend until it all “suddenly” collapses, like a vaxxed soccer player on the pitch. Of course, the U.S. is not alone in being burdened with unpayable debt and an unsustainable financial system. China and the EU countries are also insolvent and issuing debt to service their existing debt.

The only major global power without a large debt problem is Russia, with a debt to GDP ratio below 30%, while the U.S.- 120%, EU – 90%, Japan – 220%, and China – 80% have accumulated perilous levels of debt and still growing. These debt levels and the domestic implications of unsustainable economies will lead shamelessly corrupt politicians and even dictators like Xi to provoke foreign conflict in order to distract their populations from their dire economic circumstances. A wag the dog type false flag is just around the corner.

An man-made banker created economic disaster ignited this powder keg of debt in 2008, and the “solutions” rolled out by the ruling elites since have been designed to extend, pretend, and bend the minds of the masses, while fostering the perpetual pillaging campaign by the billionaire oligarchs who really run this world. The plebs have been destroyed by the relentless inflation purposefully created by Powell and his fellow central banker puppets of the Deep State, while the lords of finance have reaped billions in ill-gotten riches.

The “Haves”, who control the financial markets, media, and politicians, are ecstatic with the current paradigm, as the stock market hits new highs every day, while average Americans go deeper into debt to keep up with the Joneses, pay the rent, and put some food on the table. The U.S. is nothing more than a sophisticated technological looting operation at this point, as we await the Great Taking to be initiated by the oligarchs as their final solution.

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The Great Taking is David Rogers Webb’s warning to those not on the inside about the coming seizure of all your assets (stocks, bonds, savings) by your own government in the name of some new contrived national emergency. You will sacrifice your life savings for the good of the country (aka Deep State). At this point it’s just a matter of which comes first, The Taking, Global war, or Civil chaos caused by the ongoing election fraud. They are all coming and will merge into a category 5 hurricane of hell for the nation and the world.

The Deep State continues its complete control over who gets “elected”/selected in this country, as they use the captured judicial system as a cudgel to crush the rule of law and our Constitutional rights. The Soros selected District Attorneys, Mayors, Governors, Judges, Secretaries of States, and various other low-level captured bureaucrats, are doing what they were selected to do – destroy the country’s social fabric and create a chaotic disintegration of our community norms.

A populace propagandized into a woke communist ideology and prodded into a buy now, pay later mentality, is unwilling or unable to accept that LATER has arrived. They will pay, one way or another. Multiple bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate are all poised to pop, with the slightest provocation from a global and/or domestic blunder. We have now positioned our naval forces in the highly dangerous waters in the Middle East. Militarily supporting Israel and Ukraine has done wonders for our GDP, but it seems we are running out of ammo to defend our own country, as the invasion of our southern border accelerates. We are currently provoking armed conflict in Yemen, Syria, Gaza, Iraq, Ukraine, and Russia.

All it will take is one lucky missile or unexpected hyper-sonic missile and our vaunted navy will see a vessel or two go to the bottom of the Red Sea. Then all hell will break loose. The rhetoric, threats and accusations of atrocities are ramping up, along with armed conflict across the Middle East. With the raging religious hatreds and centuries old struggles for land and power coming to a head, it will just take one of these psychopaths to ignite a global conflict. Meanwhile, China is biding its time for when they make their ultimate move on Taiwan. That would really roll a grenade into the party.

Financial markets have ignored the worsening global conflict thus far, but what happens when Americans start dying in large numbers? If the markets are at all time highs based upon expectations of a strong thriving economy in 2024, why is the Fed signaling multiple interest rate cuts in 2024, regional banks are desperately clinging to the Fed’s emergency bailout fund, commercial real estate is collapsing, housing has peaked, gold is hitting all-time highs, credit card debt is at all-time highs, layoffs are increasing, and the number of working age citizens is in free fall due to vaxx deaths and disabilities?

But buy stocks because the Wall Street shysters and their media mouthpieces tell you it’s the best time to buy. The only question at this point is what additional grain of sand will cause the sand pile to collapse. Will it be a foreign war, or will it be a civil war within our borders or something no one has even considered? I know most people dismiss the possibility of civil war, believing there aren’t enough people willing to risk their lives for a just cause. Neil Howe seems to think it is probable.

“Roughly half of all Americans think a civil war is likely. And a growing number of social scientists agree that the United States now fits the checklist profile of a country at risk. Trust in the national government is in steep decline. Check. Respect for democratic institutions is weakening. Check. A heavily armed population has polarized into two evenly divided partisan factions. Check. Each faction embodies a distinctive ethnic, cultural, and urban-versus-rural identity. Each wants its country to become something the other detests. And each fears the prospect of the other taking power. Check, check, and check.” – Neil Howe – The Fourth Turning Is Here

Virtually no one believes civil war is possible, just as no one expected a civil war in 1860, as the presidential election approached. Truthfully, the civil war has already begun, but only those on the left, in conjunction with the FBI, CIA, Big Media, and other governmental agencies, are aggressively fighting. They are vigorously at war against the American people by rigging elections, arresting opposition leaders, and discarding the U.S. Constitution.

The good guys have thus far been too civil. But the simmering anger of heavily armed rural, red state Americans is close to boiling over. All the signs are there, awaiting a triggering event for this undeclared war to engulf the nation. At this point a number of possible triggering events are possible.

If David Webb is correct and those in power initiate the Great Taking, the level of violence in reaction would be unprecedented in U.S. history. Maybe that is their plan. Biden and his handlers could use this event to declare a national emergency, suspending the presidential election because they were going to lose, and instituting martial law. Their attempt to lockdown the country and use the military against civilians would surely result in massive bloodshed, as local animosities would result in assassinations, wholesale slaughter of those considered disloyal to whichever side controls the high ground in that community. Previously petty disputes would suddenly become lethal disputes.

Even if the presidential election is held in November, I don’t believe either side will accept the outcome. We know the Democrats and their Deep State co-conspirators will cheat, rig and once again try to steal the election. If they fail, they will unleash their BLM, ANTIFA terrorist arm into the streets to create chaos as an excuse to not hand over power to Trump.

With multiple states now attempting to unlawfully keep Trump off the ballot in their states, the animosity between the right and left grows ever deeper. The imprisonment of Trump or more radical attempts to steal the 2024 election will be met with violence from the here-to-for persevering right. Mixing this toxic domestic atmosphere with a deepening global chasm is a recipe for global disaster.

As we have seen throughout history, the egos of psychopaths at the helm of nations often lead them to act irrationally and/or emotionally when it comes to committing their people to war. While the U.S. has further weakened its global hegemony with its disastrous forays into Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine; Russia and China have gotten stronger and more mutually committed to creating their own new world order. The USD as the dominant global currency is reaching its endpoint, marking the end of empire. Now Israel will further deplete U.S. resources and global stature with their war to wipe out Palestine. Once the dominoes begin to fall in a game of global warfare, all bets are off regarding possible outcomes. Neil Howe’s worst-case scenario is certainly not out of the question.

“At worst, should at least one desperate country resort to WMDs, the outcome of a great-power war could prove to be even more devastating than that of a civil war. The toll could be almost unimaginable – with multiple cities destroyed, many millions killed, and many tens of millions displaced – all perhaps triggered by some ill-fated combination of the wrong leader making the wrong choice at the wrong time.” – Neil Howe – The Fourth Turning Is Here           

All scenarios for 2024 seem depressing and dark, but the odds still favor just continuing to muddle through as we have done through the first fifteen years of this Fourth Turning. I gave up trying to make specific predictions within a specific time frame years ago. It’s a fool’s errand as there are too many variables in the world to correctly predict which ones will drive the course of events within a one year time frame.

What I do know is that pessimism about the future continues to deepen, paranoia strengthens, trust declines, anger grows, and the arrogance of those running the show has reached epic levels. We’ve been subjected to three years of propaganda about how the Great Reset will fundamentally transform our world, where we will own nothing and be happy. It seems this fits perfectly with David Webb’s Great Taking theory of how we will ultimately own nothing.

There does seem to be a common thread running through everything happening in the last three years and appears to be on deck for 2024 and beyond. It all revolves around this broad Great Reset concept pushed by Schwab, Gates, Soros, and the rest of the Davos elite. The entire Covid plandemic was engineered to introduce authoritarian measures and instruct the masses to obey their masters.

The vaccine is now clearly revealed to be a depopulation weapon, killing off some suddenly; others through myocarditis, turbo cancers, and strokes; babies through miscarriages; and future generations through reduced fertility. And most still believe our overlords rolled these jabs out to save them. Trump is still crowing about his big, beautiful vaccines. He’s either a fool or a charlatan.

The climate change scam is hastening, as the war on farmers, meat, and fossil fuels is waged relentlessly by unelected bureaucrats and captured media mouthpieces. The EV scam is collapsing rapidly, as people with common sense see through it all. The Great Replacement of white people with third world savages is unabetted, with the Biden Administration ushering them across the southern border, giving them phones and money, flying them to cities across the country, and paying for them to stay at upscale hotels.

This is not incompetence, but treason. They have already used their predictive programming/brainwashing to prepare the masses for civil war and a massive cyber-attack. Your government will protect you, as long as you sacrifice your remaining liberties and rights. All that is left is the initiation of the Great Taking. The “emergency” will occur on a weekend and by Monday morning your assets will be gone.

This is their master plan, but we will have a say on whether it is ever successfully implemented. I wonder if these Davos psychopaths absconded with The Great Reset moniker from Strauss & Howe, as they used it to describe Fourth Turnings back in 1997.

“A Fourth Turning is a great reset.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

A Fourth Turning great reset may be a surprise to Schwab and his totalitarian acolytes inserted in governments across the world. They are in control. They are running this shitshow. They are the establishment. They are reaping the benefits. They are suppressing dissent and the truth. They are the existing social order that traditionally gets swept away during a Fourth Turning. 2024 may mark the beginning of the end for the Davos crowd and their iron grip on our spiraling society of chaos.

The future course of history could be radically altered by actions taken by supposedly influential characters in this movie, but also by courageous deeds performed by average Americans who will sacrifice themselves to ensure future generations have a chance to live in a nation devoid of a psychopathic elitist ruling class.

It seems like a long shot at this point, but giving up is not an option for those of us who still love this country. The four possible outcomes for this Crisis, laid out by Strauss & Howe in 1997, are as valid today as ever, and disturbingly close at hand. We will all have to do our part if we are to have any chance of producing a positive outcome to this Crisis. Happy New Year.

1    This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.

2    The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.

3    The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.

4    Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/01/jim-...s-in-2024/

As Americans Fight The Corruption Within The Marxist Globalist Beast While Their Cauldron Of Lies Boils Over, 2024 Will Be The Year The Wheat Is Separated From The Chaff
- America's So-Called 'Leaders' Proven To Be A Bunch Of Power Hungry Pedophiles
By J.B. Shurk and All News Pipeline
January 7, 2024

Can you be counted on? That is the question we quietly ask others. It is the question good people ask themselves. And I suspect that it is a question the Almighty will pose when we stand before Him to be judged. It is a question that has nothing to do with intelligence or talent.

It is a question that has nothing to do with one’s ancestry or station in life. Yet it is the most important question when danger comes, time is short, and everything is on the line. When you say, “I will hold this position,” can others put their lives in your hands? When you give someone your word, do you treat it as a solemn duty? When you make God a promise, can He count on you?

That’s the test for integrity, and it is a test that most people fail. That’s because being a person of integrity requires choosing tough and sometimes lonely roads. It requires the honesty and discipline to admit when you have done wrong. It requires moral resolve. And all these traits are in short supply today.

There are a thousand different ways in life to seek honors, and there is no shortage of honors out there waiting to be won. There is only one way to live a life with honor — by being a person of character, strength, and commitment. Doing so requires walking a thin line while almost everyone else veers far from principle’s path. Seeking to behave virtuously in a world that mocks virtue is not easy. Living honorably is its own precious reward.

Why do I bring this up? Because 2024 is not only going to be a tumultuous year but also a year when the wheat is separated from the chaff. Each of us will be tested, and each of us will be given the opportunity to prove our mettle.

With two regional wars already raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, China’s Xi promising an invasion of Taiwan, and a not-so-secret globalist plot to resettle millions of military-aged illegal aliens into the United States, the geopolitical cauldron is boiling over. With the U.S. government’s deficit spending, money-printing, and “green energy”-induced inflation spiking the cost of necessities at home while America’s foreign adversaries rapidly decouple from the dollar, we are one match strike away from the whole financial tinderbox going up in smoke. With Democrats moving from mail-in-ballot fraud to outright removing Trump from ballots (as well as imprisoning his voters), the justice system’s self-immolation could incinerate what’s left of due process and the rule of law. 2024’s fortune cookie might as well read, “Only those who seek shelter and hide will see ’25.”

How we respond to these chaotic events will define both our lives and the life of our country. When disaster strikes, can you keep a calm head? Will you do everything you can to safeguard your family, friends, and community? Will you dig down deep with steely nerve? Can you be counted on when it matters most?

It has never been more important for people of integrity to lead, and in the trying times that lie ahead, there will be a public desperation for such leaders. How do I know? Because, with a few notable exceptions who are already being mercilessly persecuted today, America’s entire leadership class lacks honor.

After years of shamelessly defending the wealthy and powerful from what it routinely denigrated as “baseless conspiracy theories,” the mainstream media have finally been forced to admit that two separate sex scandals (one involving Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex trafficking operation and another involving a Beltway prostitution ring — both probably honeypot goldmines for foreign intelligence services) substantiate long-running claims that America’s “ruling class” has a predilection for pedophilia. After failing to defend Jewish students from on-campus attacks following Hamas’s October 7 slaughter of Israeli innocents and failing to truthfully defend her academic record as one befitting for the president of the country’s oldest university, Harvard’s Claudine Gay still refuses to take responsibility for her own actions and instead blames her ouster on “racial animus.” After spending the last three years discharging servicemembers for refusing experimental “vaccines,” promoting men in skirts, stigmatizing conservative troops as “extremists,” and insisting that “white supremacy” and “climate change” are existential threats, the Pentagon has proven itself so full of horse manure that nobody wants to get near its stench.

While the whole world knows Joe Biden is suffering from dementia, the U.S. press corps never says a word. While roughly half the country believes his 2020 election “victory” depended on electoral fraud, and with evidence of that fraud piling up for three years, the press corps refuses to ask hard questions. When hundreds of thousands of unarmed, patriotic Americans show up to exercise their First Amendment rights to protest for free and fair elections on January 6, 2021, however, the press corps can’t stop talking about an imaginary “insurrection.” Today’s journalist class is filled with liars and frauds who have no time to speak truth to power because they are too busy manipulating the public and protecting the powerful.

America’s current “leaders” are power-hungry pedophiles, plagiarists, propagandists, and pro-Hamas partisans. They chase cushy academic positions, meaningless journalism awards, and the superficial trappings of professional prestige. They are not, however, people with honor. If they were, most would have resigned long ago or begun fighting the corruption from within the Marxist globalist beast. Instead, they use their resources to undermine those who have the audacity to exhibit character and moral strength. The people who cannot lead and cannot be trusted have chased all the real leaders away.

What we have is a leadership vacuum. For too many years, the worst among us have risen to the top, while the best take cover to avoid being seen. American exceptionalism has withered because America’s most exceptional people have quietly disappeared. In “going Galt,” they have left the keys to the kingdom with the ransackers and thieves. Too many of the clergy — those who promised God, “Thy will be done, On earth as it is in heaven” — have proven through their own sex scandals and willingness to be silent in the face of government-directed evil that they cannot be counted on. Too many academics have proven that they prefer their sinecures to their intellectual obligation to think critically. Too many natural-born warriors have proven that they would rather avoid rocking the boat than protect the country and Constitution they swore oaths to defend.

If and when tragedy strikes, though, these Americans who have been far too quiet for far too long will have a second chance. They should take it. Reclaiming their honor by admitting their past wrongs is the way those who have been silent can rejoin the fight for America’s survival. Victory, after all, is never easy. It is defined as success in a struggle or endeavor against great odds. It is a difficult ordeal that ends in triumph. In other words, there can be no victory, unless we first acknowledge that the work before us is immense and the challenges daunting. There certainly can be no victory for American freedom, unless those with honor join the fight. Integrity shines most during uncertain times. And as those lacking honor “lead” our country to its destruction, more and more Americans will turn to each other with a single question on their minds: can you be counted on?

https://allnewspipeline.com/Americans_Fi..._Beast.php
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The Financial System Has Reached 'The End' | Paper Money Eventually Returns To Its Intrinsic Value - ZERO
Egon von Greyerz | GoldSwitzerland.com
November 27, 2023

The world is now witnessing the end of a currency and financial system which the Chinese already forecast in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window.

Again, remember von Mises words:

    “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”

History tells us that we have now reached the point of no return.

So denying history at this point will not just be very costly but will lead to a total destruction of investors’ wealth.

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POLITICIANS LIE WITHOUT FAIL

History never lies but politicians do without fail. In a fake system based on false values, lying is considered to be an essential part of political survival.

Let’s just look at Nixons ignorant and irresponsible statements of August 15, 1971 when he took away the gold backing of the dollar and thus all currencies.

Later on we will show how clearsighted the Chinese leaders were about the destiny of the US and its economy. 

So there we have tricky Dick’s lies.

    The suspension of the convertibility of the dollar in 1971 is still in effect 52 years later.
    As the dollar has declined by almost 99% since 1971, the “strength of the economy” is also declining fast although using fiat money as the measure hides the truth.
    And now to the last lie: “Your dollar will be worth as much tomorrow”. Yes, you are almost right Dick!  It is still worth today a whole 1% of the value when you closed the gold window.

The political system is clearly a farce. You have to lie to be elected and you have to lie to stay in power. That is what the gullible voters expect. The sad result is that they will always be cheated.
CHINA FORECAST THE CONSEQUENCES ALREADY IN 1971

So in 1971 after Nixon closed the gold window, China in its official news media the People’s Daily made the statements below:

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Clearly the Chinese understood the consequences of the disastrous US decision which would destroy the Western currency system as they said:

    Seriousness of the US economic crisis and decay and decline of the capitalist system
    Mark the collapse of the monetary system with the US dollar as its prop
    Nixon’s policy cannot extricate the US from financial and economic crisis

I am quite certain that the US administration at the time ridiculed China’s official statement. As most Western governments, they showed their arrogance and complete ignorance of history.

How right the Chinese were.

But the road to perdition is not immediate and we have seen over 50 years the clear “decline of the capitalist system”. The end of the current system is unlikely to be far away.

Interestingly it seems that a Communist non-democratic system is much more clairvoyant than a so called Western democracy. There is clearly an advantage not always having to buy votes.
IRRELEVANT WHICH CURRENCY WINS THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM

As the whole currency system is about to implode,  it is in my view totally irrelevant where the US dollar is heading short term measured against other fiat currencies.

The dilemma is that most “experts” use the Dollar Index (DXY) as the measure of the dollar’s strength or weakness.  This is like climbing the ladder of success only to find out that the ladder is leaning against the wrong building.

To measure the dollar against its partners in crime (the other fiat currencies) misses the point as they are all on the way to perdition.

So the dollar index measures the dollar against six fiat currencies: Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Kroner and Swiss Franc. The Chinese Yuan shines in its absence even though China is the second biggest economy in the world.

But here is the crux. The dollar is in a race to the bottom with 6 other currencies.

Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 all 7 currencies, including the US dollar, have declined 97-99% in real terms.

Real terms means constant purchasing power.

And the only money which has maintained constant purchasing power for over 5,000 years is of course gold.

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So let’s make it clear – the only money which has survived in history is GOLD!

All other currencies have without fail gone to ZERO and that without exception.

Voltaire said it already in 1729:
PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZERO

And that has been the destiny of every currency throughout history.

Every single currency has without fail gone to ZERO. And this is where the dollar and its lackeys are heading.

To debate if a currency, which has fallen 98.2% in the last 52 years, is going to strengthen or weaken in the next year or two is really missing the point.

It is virtually 100% certain that the dollar and all fiat money will complete the cycle (which started in 1913 with the creation of the Fed) and fall the remaining 1-3% to ZERO.

But we must remember that the final fall involves a 100% loss of value from today.
BRENT JOHNSON & MATT PIEPENBURG DEBATE THE DOLLAR

So to debate whether the dollar index which today is 103, will reach 150 first as my good friend Brent Johnson argues in his Dollar Milk Shake Theory or that it will fall from here as my colleague Matt Piepenburg contends, really misses the point.

There is no prize for coming first to the bottom. The dollar is down almost 99% in real terms since 1971. So it has a bit over 1% to fall to reach ZERO.

And history tells us that the final fall is INEVITABLE.

So why worry if the Dollar or the Euro becomes worthless first? It really is a moot point.

Brent Johnson and Matt Piepenburg recently had a debate on Adam Taggart’s new platform “Thoughtful Money”. Adam is an outstanding host with great speakers and both Brent and Matt were superb in their presentation of the arguments for or against the dollar. But even though they both like and understand gold, they got a bit too caught up in the dollar up or down debate rather than focusing on the only money which has survived in history. Still, I know that they both appreciate that gold is the ultimate money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xjEZdLnSJo&t=4254s

NOT ALL CURRENCIES ARE BAD

The world’s reserve currency has had a sad performance based on lies, poor real growth, all due to a mismanaged economy based on debt and printed money.

So although most currencies have lost 97-99% in real terms since 1971 there are shining exceptions.

When the gold window was closed in 1971 I was working in a Swiss bank in Geneva. At the time, one dollar cost Swiss Franc 4.30. Today, 52 years later, one dollar costs Swiss Franc 0.88!

This means that the dollar has declined 80% against the Swiss Franc since 1971.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public...age-15.jpg

So a country like Switzerland with virtually no deficits and a very low debt to GDP proves that a well managed economy with very low inflation doesn’t destroy its currency like most irresponsible governments.

The Swiss system of direct democracy and people power is totally unique and gives the people the right to have a referendum on almost any issue they choose.

This makes the people much more responsible in their choices as a winning vote on any issue becomes part of the constitution and cannot be changed by government or parliament. Only a new referendum can change such a decision.
THE US BANANA REPUBLIC

Swiss Debt to GDP is around 40%. This was the level of US debt back in 1971 before the gold window was closed.

As the graph below shows, US debt to GDP is now 132%. In 2000 it was 55%.

132% debt to GDP is the level of a Banana Republic which is frantically trying to survive by printing and borrowing ever increasing amounts of worthless fiat money. 

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public...age-16.jpg

So debt to GDP is now reaching the exponential phase. I have explained the final phases of exponential moves in many articles like here.

https://goldswitzerland.com/a-disorderly...multiples/

Since there is no intent or possibility to reduce the US deficit, the likely deficit for next fiscal year is most probably in excess of $2 trillion and that is before any bad news like higher inflation, higher interest rates, bank failures, more war, more QE etc.

As I discussed in a recent article,“THE CYCLE OF EVIL”, the world is today facing unprecedented risks of a magnitude never before seen in history.

https://goldswitzerland.com/the-cycle-of-evil/

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public...24x576.jpg

THE TIME TO PRESERVE WEALTH IS NOW

The combination of geopolitical and financial risk makes wealth preservation an absolute necessity.

Most asset markets look extremely vulnerable be it stocks bond or property. Few investors understand that current asset prices are in cloud cuckoo land as a result of an unprecedented credit expansion.

Personally I think we are now at a point when asset markets could tank.

At the same time gold looks ready to soon break out of its consolidation since 2020.

Once gold leaves the $2,000 level behind, the move is likely to be fast.

Silver will most probably move twice as fast as gold.

But this is not a question of price and speculation. No, it is all about risk and wealth preservation.

So short term timing is irrelevant. The next few years will be about financial survival.

Sadly most investors will buy the dips in conventional asset markets like stocks and lose most of their gains in the last few decades.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public...age-18.jpg

As gold is insurance against a rotten financial system it must be acquired and owned outside a fragile banking system which is unlikely to survive in its present form.

Here are a few of the SINE QUA NON (indispensable conditions) for gold ownership:

    Gold must be held in physical form. No funds, ETFs or bank held gold.
    The investor must have direct access to his own gold bars/coins.
    Any counterparty must be eliminated whenever possible.
    Gold must be stored in ultra safe vaults outside the banking system.
    Gold should not be stored in a major city.
    Gold must be insured.
    Only gold that you are prepared to lose should be stored at home.
    Gold should be stored outside your country of residence and in a gold friendly jurisdiction.
    The country where the gold is stored must have a long history of democracy, political stability and peace. 

As we are approaching one of the most precarious times in history both financially, socially, politically and geopolitically, Wealth Preservation in the form of gold and some silver will make the difference between financial survival or ruin.

As always, most important in life is looking after family and helping friends. 

And remember that in the difficult times ahead there are many wonderful things that are free like nature, books, music, sports etc.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/financ...on-greyerz

The Electronic Takeover of Every Asset on Earth, "The Great Taking," and the Control of Humanity
By Gary D. Barnett
December 29, 2023


Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin… Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money and control credit, and with a flick of a pen they will create enough to buy it back.”

~ Josiah Stamp

Sometimes things seem so complicated, that most simply avoid any effort to understand the problems facing them. Very little of anything is too complicated or too complex for any thinking individual to understand, so breaking things down to a level that is more easily understandable is often necessary for clarity. These efforts can be helped along by those with knowledge about important issues, who take the time to explain them in such a manner, that little expertise is necessary to figure out the basis of the matter at hand. A great impediment to this dilemma, is the fact that the State has over many decades, attempted, and most successfully, to dumb-down the population at large, by taking over the ‘schooling’ of each generation almost from birth until full adulthood and beyond, thereby harming the intellect of large numbers of ‘society’ to such an extent, as to effectively negate meaningful dialogue.

The result of this manufactured and manipulated outcome, has been the plotted creation of a blind, ignorant, and indifferent population, with voluminous propaganda being used as a tool of deception. This has led to mass slavery, even though the crowd for the most part, still believes due to extreme gullibility and brainwashing, that they are somehow free. This solidifies the statement made by Von Goethe, that “None are so enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free.” This country is the epitome of this reality, but few recognize the existence and scope of the extreme uncertainty confronting us, and the dire consequences of the mass inaction of the herd in the face of the staggering challenges ahead.

Our plight, at least in the economic and financial sense, has been recently explained by David Rogers Webb, in his documentary, “The Great Taking.” This is very well done so far as explaining much of what has happened, how it happened, and the players involved on Wall Street, in government and by so-called ‘law-makers,’ political regulators, corporate heads, and the central bankers, whose ability to create unlimited sums of currency has plunged this country into economic hell. A lot of what he is saying in this production is spot on, and does get very technical concerning the structuring of assets so as to place ownership of nearly everything intangible on earth in the hands of the few at the top of the banking cabal. Where he completely fails, is in his very confused ideas concerning the solutions to this takeover plot. On one hand, he nails the problems, but on the other, he destroys all his efforts due to his gross ignorance and misunderstanding of government and the power structures bent on controlling everything. It is astounding to me that Webb understands so much about the corruption, dishonesty, and intricate criminal workings of those who control the ‘money,’ but fails miserably in his assessment of how to go about fixing these problems.

This is not uncommon, as most everyone seeks solutions from outside themselves, and inside the very failed system that has always been the problem. This is of course backward, but by accepting the system and attempting to change and reform it using that same system, negates any risk or responsibility of the individual, and places all efforts on ‘trusting’ others to be honest and noble for the benefit of the evil and moronic idea of the ‘greater good.’  Let’s just get ‘better people’ in government; let’s tell government not to seek power or expand; let’s just ‘educate’ the ruling class, because they really do not want this, but only inherited this ownership layer of power. “They (Rothschilds, Rockefellers, Royals, Presidents) did not design this, they did not put it into motion, they have allowed the juggernaut to continue; they are not particularly capable people.”

All we have to do according to Webb, is push the ‘awareness’ of the insanity of wanting to control everything, to the top levels of all the “muscle,” (politicians, agency heads, corporate heads, CIA, military brass, etc.) who enforce the criminal behavior of the real rulers, so that they will see the error of their ways, because “they did not know anything about this” plot. So all we have to do is reach people at high levels, in order to expect them to save us. With Webb’s thinking, we do not need to get rid of this heinous system, all we need to do is repair it. We do not need a privately-owned central bank, (of course not) we need to have a central bank run like a ‘public’ utility, or in other words, the government should run the central bank and return all profits to the ‘public’ (government) and for the support of that same government. This is what I would refer to as a socialistic, communistic, nationalistic, and fascist, utopian monetary plan, based on pure fantasy.

According to Webb, “We have to have government. We have to have someone to ‘operate’ society.” “Anarchy and chaos; (opposites) we can’t have that.” His notion is that everything has to be done ‘legally,’ which only means by the forced and enforced rules of the State. All we have to do is to make government smaller, limited, and beneficial to humanity. Ah, so simple?

Enough of this poppycock, love and respect of the evil State, its laws, and the expectation that by informing the ruling class that it is not being good, that they will understand their complicity in evil, and voluntarily reverse everything they have done perpetually throughout history, and only act as benevolent masters and ‘leaders,’ ministers of peace for humanity, and lowly saints of man. All this nonsense means is that a full reliance on educating the near top level of rule, so that they will speak out against what is happening; those high level politicians, billionaires, corporate heads, and banking magnates, and then the ‘system’ will repair itself for the betterment of mankind.

All assets on earth are on the chopping block, as all assets are coming under the control of the ruling master class. The electronic takeover of all monetary, credit, and debt systems, total control the internet, and the all-consuming growth of artificial ‘intelligence,’ are going ahead full steam, and once in place universally, once all monetary transactions are digital, once CBDCs and other central bank monetary units (fed coins, etc.) are in place, and when currencies are cleared and controlled from a global central source or sources, the total loss of control by individuals, will be the result. All property will be subject to confiscation and management by the State, including the very lives of the sheep.

The bankers own the earth, (and all politicians) and will never give up their power to create money out of thin air, and without limit. Even if government was to somehow take over the monetary system and control the central bank, a joke to be sure, it would never rectify this gross corruption, or act in favor of the people. The entire system is the problem; government is the problem, so in order for any escape from this insanity, in order to ever regain any aspect of real freedom, this entire system, all of it, must be abolished. Nothing of value can ever come from seeking redress from the same government that is the oppressor of humanity. No government or ruling class controlling government, will ever limit its own power in favor of individual sovereignty, for that would automatically negate any need of government or rule. No government or rule should exist, as it is completely immoral for any man to rule another by force. The natural state of  man is to be free, and this is the responsibility of each and every individual; each and every one of you.

“Between the government which does evil and the people who accept it – there is a certain shameful solidarity.”

Victor Hugo

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/12/gary...-humanity/

The Dreaded GOAT Predictions for 2024 Part I — Where Do We Go From Here?
By Tom Luongo
January 6, 2024


Where do we go from here
Terror in Rue de St. Denis, murder on the periphery
Someone else in someone else’s pocket
Christ knows I don’t know how to stop it
Poppies at the cenotaph, the cynics can’t afford to laugh
I heard in on the telegraph there’s Uzis on a street corner
— Marillion, White Russian

Last year I finally gave in to the pressure and did a 10 Predictions for 2023 post. I’m not a huge fan of these things, but getting out of your comfort zone is never a bad thing. So, let’s look at the scorecard and update things.

https://tomluongo.me/2023/01/07/goat-pre...-religion/

Last year’s theme was “Losing My Religion.” Last year was a mess. So many of the themes I wrote about advanced significantly. So many of them caused a lot of folks to lose their religion over old narratives.

What most of them didn’t do, however, was come true. By my count I hit .300 last year — good enough for the Majors but not for the geopolitical prediction business. Predictions #4,6,8 are winners.

The Ukraine War did continue dangerously (#4). De-dollarization (#6) did accelerate as bilateral trade moved away from the US dollar is many areas, while the USDX spent most of the year rising only to collapse in Q4 on ridiculous hopes of eight (8) rate cuts by the Fed in 2024. Oil never dropped below $70 per barrel Brent (#8).

I’d take credit for #9 but the Dow Jones Industrials missed the 40,000 mark by just over 2,000 points. Then again, given that nearly everyone else expected the Dow to collapse into oblivion, I think I should get extra credit for at least calling the shift from bonds into equities for most of the year, to be turbo-charged into the end of Q4 on the perception of a dovish Fed.

Given how much of a mess 2023 was, I guess I’ll have to take that as a challenge to improve. Let’s get started… the problem with that is, of course, where do we start? Where do we go from here?

#1 – The Democrats Will Try to Burn the Country Down to Win the Election

We are in the midst of a Cultural Revolution the likes of which we haven’t seen since the days of Mao in China. Until we wrap our heads around this, take it into our black hearts, and metaphorically start “slitting throats” to invoke H.L. Mencken we will lose what, sadly, has become the most important election of our lifetimes.

Not that elections mean much anymore. Certainly not after “Joe Biden” was selected over Donald Trump in 2020. I said after the 2020 election steal that “Civil War it is, then.”

If we just get rid of Orange Man Bad, everything wrong with America will be gone…

… So, all they have now is the unquenchable envy of Marxism which burns until it consumes everyone in retribution or they are put down like rabid dogs. That’s what is on display in these counting centers.

This is what they did in 2020. Today too many people see them for what they are. The speech environment is less controlled, thanks to some guy named Musk.

Therefore, the only option for them and Davos now is to go big or go home.

They have to win this thing or a few hundred years of colonial oppression and extraction collapses… at least that’s what they are thinking. To stop Trump they will stop at literally nothing. If you don’t believe me, believe the AP’s description of the first week of Biden’s 2024 election campaign, where he’s not even allowed to have a challenger.

It’s all race baiting; dark and twisted. It’s all Goebbels in the media, all day. “MAGA Republicans,” “Nazis,” “Saving Democracy!” Read the quotes from the Millennial operatives building “Biden’s” campaign and tell me they are just cynical hacks.

Is is just me or does anyone else think of “Matt Daaa-mon” from Team America: World Police whenever I see or hear “Joe Biden” anymore?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKD1uyZVMFw

#2 – It’s False False False False False Flag World.

    They are telling you they are going to go balls to the wall with the Race War card this summer. There will be a ‘racially-motivated’ false flag along with an attack ‘by Iran and/or Russia’ on our electrical grid.

    — Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch) (@TFL1728) January 4, 2024

Both of these things I’m predicting in this tweet have sprung from events from this week… in 2024. “Joah Bii-den’s” campaign kickoff tour as described and the attack on the funeral commemorating the 3rd anniversary of Trump assassinating Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Iran.

Every neocon douchebag in an off-the-rack (pant)suit will remind us day and night for the next few months about how much Iran hates us. They will now also use the US pulling the Gerald Ford carrier group — long overdue for maintenance FYI — out of the Persian Gulf as a talking point. First to show how weak we’ve become by not standing up to Iran and Shi’ite terrorists.

Second, they will use that to concoct a fantasy of an empowered Iran sending agents through the border to take out the grid in Texas or Florida.

The best part is that will come from the Republi-tards like Nimrata Haley scoring political points with the Fox News set because “Joah Bii-den” opened up the border. This sets up #3.

The main point is that it will be nothing but false flag operations all summer long. These people need a casus belli to rouse the US out of its anti-war slumber for the war that will end the American experiment once and for all.

The goal is always to save themselves, and a US fighting a war on every front is, to them, the best path to do that.

#3 – Neither Trump Nor Biden Will be President in 2025.

The handwriting is already on the wall. It has been written in blood and drool. None of “Bii-den’s” moves to save himself politically will work. The US electorate is too far gone for that. The only thing that gets his or the Democrats’ approval rating out of the cellar is a war, and only a Just War thanks to #2, if it comes to pass.

But, even as I laid out, “Joah Bii-den” and the Dems will get the blame for any attack on US civilians by ‘terrorists’ let into the country.

So, in that scenario, getting rid of Donald Trump is the priority. Trump is clearly primed to go into the White House again, this time armed with a much better sense of what power he actually wields as President.

I’m no Trumptard, far from it. But just Trump’s desire for revenge and his sense of patriotism alone should be enough for him to blow up a whole lot in his second 100-days.

And that is why they have to stop him from either winning or, if he wins, ever taking office.

I’m not making a prediction on how the election turns out. But it is obvious that a lot of bad people are auditioning to be Trump’s Veep. Wall St. has made it obvious that it should be Nimrata. The Gods forbid happening! But it’s the most likely scenario if she makes it out of the early states with even some false momentum.

Vivek Ramaswamay is as authentic as Hillary Clinton’s chocolate chip cookies but he’s saying all the right things, and may even mean a couple of them.

Ron DeSantis isn’t ready for prime time and has too much work to do in Florida to prepare for the Civil War anyway.

The less said about the rest, the better. If somehow Trump is inaugurated a year from now, he will be saddled with more poison pills than your local CVS.

On the Democrats’ side of the aisle, Gavin Gruesome is clearly being groomed (all puns intended) for the job. Michelle Obama hates the US so much she’d love to finish the job her ‘husband’ started but only if she could be handed the job like “Joah Biii-den” was.

Big Mike doesn’t do kissin’ white babies.

And current Veep Kamala Harris may just have something to say about all of this yet. The problem is will anyone be able to understand it.

None of these people can beat Trump even if some of my failed predictions from 2023 come true and they embrace them in 2024, namely #5, “The US will Leave Syria,” to try and shift away from deeply unpopular positions.

Getting our troops out of Syria would fit into the “Iran attacks US civilians” plot I outlined above. It would fuel the Neocon/Nimrata schtick about empowering Iran by running from the Houthis. It will remind everyone of “Joah Bii-Den’s” disgraceful withdrawal from Afghanistan and give her foreign policy cred to be Trump’s VP pick.

#4 – Inflation, Interrupted

I predicated most of my 2023 predictions on inflation returning in the second half of the year. Inflation didn’t come back because of the concerted effort to keep oil prices below $80 per barrel Brent. That kept wholesale gasoline prices lower for :Joah Bii-Den” to try and score a point with the voters.

Moreover, RINS blending credit prices fell dramatically because of a record US corn harvest. Low natural gas prices used for drying also helped keep pressure on gas prices all year. This dynamic isn’t going to change in the first half of 2024.

Since COVID we’ve been dealing with cost-push inflation and especially of the ‘gasoline-induced’ variety.

https://lrc-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/...0x298.webp

Gas futures entered 2024 with all the momentum of EV sales at a Jeb Bush revival.

Please Clap.

And that means low CPI inflation through the first half of 2024. Despite having declared an end to fossil fuels by 2030 or 35 or Juneteenth, the Davos ninnies are having a hard time explaining away why the IEA just revised upward their projection for 2024 global demand for gasoline after a record 2023.

Low gasoline prices are an American phenomenon: equal parts non-market ethanol-blending shenanigans (RINS), the reindexing of Brent to include oversupplied West Texas Intermediate (25% weighting), and dumping more than half of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market to punish Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The widening Brent/WTI spread, now over $5 per barrel, tells you that global demand is strong despite record US production numbers.

Finally, the “Bii-Den!” administration is refilling the SPR, at far higher prices than they turned down in February of last year. While inflation is on hold, it’s still baked into this economic cake and FOMC Chair Jerome Powell knows it.

So, I expect the CPI to remain exactly where no one wants it for the first half of 2024; just high enough to stay the Fed’s hand on cutting rates but just low enough to keep the pressure on Powell to loosen credit conditions around the world.

#5 – Is It Really a Pivot after More than Two Years?

The biggest questions of 2024 surround the Fed. When will they begin cutting rates and how many times? These are questions that have far bigger implications for the dollar worldwide rather than domestically.

We can look now at the financial health of the country more accurately thanks to having a real market for domestic dollar demand, SOFR — The Secured Overnight Financing Rate. Anyone using dollars now has to think about what the Fed wants directly rather than what City of London wants with its hand up the Fed’s ass.

It’s an important distinction for this cycle.

In past cycles, the Fed was never really in control of its monetary policy, but yet it always took the blame for what happened. Austro-libertarians like myself and others applied our general (and I still believe correct) critique of central banking as yet another iteration on why all central planning fails.

But, without the larger context of the system as built, i.e. the eurodollar system, that critique is a shallow one. This is not because the end goal of decentralizing banking and money is wrong, but because there are a few dozens moves to be made before you can actually implement it.

The whole world isn’t just going to gather ’round the campfire, pick up a mistuned acoustic guitar and a joint, and say, “Yeah… man,” before launching into the Ron Paul Song (as good as it is!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZgGYpG2KFA

Even Ron argued that we had to do as little harm as possible. That means changing the direction of the country while we keep our promises, pay our bills, and clean our rooms.

Did Ron advocate tearing down 95% of the federal government in a year? No, he said roll back the budget to that of a few years ago, for example. Rein in the spending. Normalize interest rates. End the Empire abroad.

But we couldn’t do that if LIBOR was actually the tail wagging the US banking system dog.

Isn’t rolling the Fed back to being the central bank of the US rather than the world a similar move as the ones listed above? Ending the Eurodollar system will take more than a couple of years. It will take decades to drain if we don’t want to maximize the collateral damage of changing out this system to, you know, everyone.

So, for this year, monetary policy is absolutely political. Whatever Powell does or does not do will be politicized. Everyone will grind their ideological axe because it gets clicks, buys votes, and pays the bills.

The ones dying on the Eurodollar vine will scream, “PIVOT!” The ones finally getting positive real yield on their savings will say, “Don’t you dare!”

One could argue that the first two years of the fight versus the Great Reset and the grand Eurocommie Revival were the easy ones. The easy ground to take. Now it’s crunch time. Now we get to find out not just now strong Powell is internally, but how strong those backing his play actually are.

That’s the real question we’ve all been struggling to answer since I first brought this all up two years ago.

If I’ve been correct about all of this SOFR v. LIBOR stuff, then Powell will hold to his “Higher for Longer” position for as long as he can. We can argue about the definition of “long.”

That means as long as he has the cover of low but annoyingly high inflation (#4 above), then he doesn’t have to do anything in Q1 even if the markets scream otherwise.

Since the beginning of this week, the SOFR Futures market has already priced out one rate cut for 2024.

https://lrc-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/...0x258.webp

Will it price out another 1 or 2 by the next FOMC Meeting? Look at how far these curves are moving meeting to meeting and you tell me the market has any clue as to what’s on the horizon.

Last year because I was expecting inflation to return I expected the Fed to pause and then resume rate hikes, pushing to a terminal rate closer to 7% than 5%. Clearly that didn’t work out. But, if I’m right about inflation returning in H2 of this year then that argument still holds serve.

All this said, here are the answers to the questions surrounding the Fed in 2024.

The Goldilocks scenario is this (and it’s the one we should all hope for):

If the Fed can get through the lowflation period thanks to low gasoline prices of H1 2024, then it clears the decks for Powell to continue just doing nothing until the election is no longer in Davos’ grasp. At that point he’s clear to lower rates in the second half of the year, at the July meeting or after Jackson Hole, to give the incoming president, hopefully Trump, clear sailing to clean house with a positive credit environment to continue the reorganization of the economy with a less corrupt Congress.

Now here’s my realistic scenario:

Powell refuses to cut rates by March to help Bii-den! win the election. The Fed becomes one of the main focal points of the Democrats’ campaign. End the Fed and absorb it into the US Treasury. Blame the recession on the Fed. It won’t work. Powell cuts in May or June, once. The FOMC statement at the Halloween meeting will be a harbinger of where election shenanigans are headed. The Usual Suspects will scream “Cuck!” and “Baby Murderer!” with equal ferocity.

The planet keeps spinning.

Part II: Soon

And everyone looks at everyone’s faces
Searching for signs and praying for traces of a conscience in residence
Are we sitting on a barbed wire fence
Racing the clouds home, racing the clouds home…
Marillion, White Russian

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/01/thom...from-here/
Reply

#4
The Dreaded GOAT Predictions for 2024 Part II — Becoming Ungovernable
By Tom Luongo
January 12, 2024


When I hit the streets back in ’81
Found a heart in the gutter and a poet’s crown
I felt barbed wire kisses and icicle tears
Where have I been for all these years?
I saw political intrigue, political lies
Gonna wipe those smiles of self-satisfaction from their eyes
— Marillion, White Feather

In my last post, Part I, I asked the question, “Where do we go from here…” knowing that we have political upheaval in the West we haven’t seen in the US since the 1860’s. Joah Bii-Den! fulfilled his promise to divide the country further with a speech commemorating the riot at The Capitol that sounded better in the original German (H/T Dennis Miller).

The general theme of my first five observations on where things are headed in 2024 build off the basic premise that Davos et.al. would rather burn the world to the ground than give up their perception of control over it.

Like in 2023’s prediction post the controlling idea of inflation returning in the second half of the year informed most of my commentary, this Globalist Temper Tantrum is central to my thinking this year.

And believe me, I will be happy to be wrong about this. Happier than I can fully express in words.

That temper tantrum, however, is now facing the natural opposition from, for lack of a better term, normal people. So, bound up in these predictions will be the idea of the counter-revolution as people come into their own, master their fear of the establishment, and stride forth with purpose. I’ve seen it building for years across the West. 2024 is, I believe, where these two titanic societal forces meet on the battlefield and determine humanity’s future.

It will come down to how hard will they beat us while we decide just how ungovernable we will become. History tells me people always win over systems.

#6 – Political Upheaval in the Heart of Globalism

For years I’ve been developing the idea that the European Union is the model for Davos’ more perfect technocratic union. It’s built on many of the ideas put into practice in the 20th century in the USSR and China.

It’s one of the controlling ideas of everything I write about on Gold Goats ‘n Guns. Globalism isn’t just an idea, it is a religion and a process to be methodically implemented over time. This is a multi-generational thing. It doesn’t mean that anyone is actually in charge of anything, it means that there are people pulling levers as if they are in charge of everything.

So, what’s been building for years in Europe has been wholly predictable as there are wildly different cultures, histories of inter-tribal wars, language barriers, and differing legal constructs all embedded deeply within the DNA of the people who live there.

Hungary is off the reservation and takes control over the European Council Presidency in July. The Netherlands held massive farmers’ protests which ended in snap elections and Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) winning. The heart of the EU is seizing at the exact moment when the EU is pushing to consolidate political and economic power.

The European Parliamentary elections won’t likely change anything ultimately as the European People’s Party (EPP), currently the largest party in that body, will win again. There won’t be any change at the nominal top. It’s digging into the details of what is happening in Germany, however, that is the key to seeing what comes next.

Because the EU rests on the idea of a Germany willing not only to lead the EU, in a kind of political Fourth Reich, but also spending what’s left of its soul as Germany to make that happen.

I was expecting to write about Germany’s political woes in this post before I heard about their trucker’s revolt that’s going on as I type. The current coalition government is unwieldy. It’s polling numbers are actually worse than US Democrats’ at this point.

    Germany, INSA poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 31% (-1)
    AfD-ID: 23% (+0.5)
    SPD-S&D: 16% (+1)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12% (-1)
    FDP-RE: 5%
    LINKE-LEFT: 4%
    FW-RE: 3%

    +/- vs. 29 December 2023-2 January 2024

    Fieldwork: 2-5 January 2024
    Sample size: 1,204

    ➤ https://t.co/obOCVirbpF #btw25 #Bundestag… pic.twitter.com/C4qNcIdiBS

    — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) January 7, 2024

And under anything close to normal circumstances, the German government would have already collapsed. But it hasn’t because it is still under orders not to give in. The Traffic Light Coalition’s job now is to ram through what they can before state elections later this year.

Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia all go to the polls to elect new governments in 2024. Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to sweep them, polling in the mid-30’s in those three states. Predicting an AfD win in those states is no challenge. Neither is predicting the roadblocks in front of them entering into any coalition government.

What is hard to predict is whether those roadblocks will succeed in stopping the populist juggernaut building in the former East Germany. Because if AfD wins a big enough victory in those states then that will preclude the kind of back-stabbing that Angela Merkel engaged in after Thuringia’s vote in 2020. Review my coverage on this from 2020. The effects on the CDU were profound, causing real and deep divisions within the party. You can see that the seeds to defying Merkelism (which is just Davos’ wishes) should sprout this spring into full blown political revolt.

This is why there is a new CDU splinter group trying to head AfD off at the electoral pass, in the hopes of draining some of its support. Meanwhile AfD are preparing thousands of meals for the farmers protesting peacefully for a saner future. Winning of hearts and minds, exactly as I exhorted them to do when they first crossed the 16% Chasm.

If AfD enters the governments of those three states it gives them veto power over 12 of the 69 votes in the German Upper House, the Bundesrat. The Greens will still have a massive veto majority. The question then is will that translate into a collapsed coalition for Scholz and snap elections later this year.

https://lrc-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/...0x318.webp

With the FDP voting last week to stay in the coalition, despite serious questions as to the vote’s legitimacy (where have we heard this before), the answer right now is no. But Mark Rutte was forced out of office in the Netherlands. Never say never.

#7 — Japan will Strengthen the Yen, Nikkei Will Soar

Per my last discussion with Francis Hunt, The Market Sniper, we came to the conclusion that Japan was one of the most interesting fulcra on which the global financial system rests. When former Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda shocked markets in December 2022, at his last meeting, by widening the band on the bank’s yield curve control (YCC) policy to 0.5% it was a harbinger of big changes coming.

When the new guy, Kazuo Ueda took office he slow rolled those changes, disappointing markets that, as always, got way ahead of themselves. For most of 2023 I commented on Japan saying that the BoJ would re-enter the global game of monetary policy poker, after being the fish at the table for three decades.

The standard analysis of Japan is that they are screwed because of their insane debt-to-GDP ratio. But, in a world where all the first world economies are running massive deficits I have to ask the question as to why Japan gets singled out?

Japan is in the same position as the EU: an energy importer that needs to exit QE because the Fed has done so and has to contain inflation. For Japan, however, inflation burbled up slower than it did in the US and Europe. This is why Ueda has been able to slow roll his changes to monetary policy, with the YCC cap on the 10-Year JGB now a ‘soft’ 1%, up from Kuroda’s 0.5%.

Now, you can argue, rightfully, that 3% inflation in Japan is a far more important political issue than 4% or 5% here, but the point still stands, they have a much different problem than we’ve had.

As we enter 2024, the Q4 “Buy All the Things” Rally will attenuate across all asset classes. A stronger yen will tame inflation, especially at moderate energy prices, while also allowing the BoJ to begin shrinking its balance sheet. Japan will adopt Powell’s monetary policy.

Once rates rise above 1% on the 10-year JGB, the breakout and consolidation we’ve seen in the Nikkei 225 will end and a new rally will begin on the rotation trade. My target for the yen to hit 125 this year, with the Nikkei following along rallying towards 45,000.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQiMXsLo6bs

https://lrc-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/assets/...0x360.webp

#8 — Soft Secession in the US and Canada

In Canada the two themes of Climate Change and Sovereigntism came together beautifully in the form of a good ‘ol fashioned North American tax revolt. In the US states are openly defying the Federal government on immigration (Texas) and health policy (Florida declaring the vaccines dangerous).

Last fall in Alberta, Premier Danielle Smith invoked the Sovereignty Act to tell Ottawa to stuff their new energy grid regulations and demands up their ass. Right after that, in Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe announced the province will stop collecting the carbon tax on both natural gas and electricity.

    Breaking…

    After declaring that he will stop collecting the Carbon Tax on Natural Gas on January 1st, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said, “our government has decided that SaskPower will also stop collecting the Carbon Tax on electric heat effective January the 1st.”

    Nice. pic.twitter.com/BUDSkIugDr

    — Paul Mitchell (@PaulMitchell_AB) November 30, 2023

It will be met with indifference by Justin Tru-DOH! and the unfortunately-named (Freeland?) “Nationalist” bit*h who actually runs the show there, but it won’t matter.

This is how you express your sovereignty. This is how you say, no. Simply just say, we’re not collecting the taxes and sending them to Ottawa. And, given that these two provinces provide the lion’s share of the tax revenue they have a lot of leverage.

You can expect to see a lot more of this going forward; open defiance of the central government.  Number #6 is about Europe, but it’ll be expressions of state sovereignty and the return of Federalist principles that will make the difference.

Now, that said while this is a very good thing for Canada, it may not be for the US.

No one gives a damn about Canadian bond yields except the Canadian government.  It’s not like the loonie and CGB’s are the backbone of the global financial system.

A state standing up to a corrupt central government over something as important as this is a direct attack on the validity of the central government and, by extension, its government bond markets/currency. Danielle Smith understands this. It’s why she went straight to the jugular in Ottawa.

This will put upward pressure on bond yields as Alberta takes one step after another towards financial and regulatory independence. Given the way the Bank of Canada has comported itself, Smith and Moe have more friends than you may think.

Expect Ottawa and Davos to strike back. But, again, like in Germany, if the attack fails and Smith wins this round, it will mark the beginning of the end of the central government in Ottawa.

Secession from Ottawa would be devastating to the British Crown, Davos, and all these freaking globalist ghouls.

Like Syria was to the Middle East — telling the OPEC nations someone could stand up to the US — Alberta standing up to Ottawa makes Saskatchewan stronger.  It makes, by extension states like Idaho in the US stronger as well.

20 states in the US are organizing and introducing their versions of the Sound Money Act, making gold and silver transactional currencies. New Hampshire is first this week to present it to the legislature.

But, on the flip side, now consider California trying the same thing during a 2nd Trump term, but this time over the exact opposite, refusing to give up their mandated insanity for anyone doing business in California and threatening to break off.

That achieves the WEF goal of breaking the US bond market, creating political doubt over the very markets that prevent them from running the table and consolidating power in the West under Europe’s control.

I know I’ve made these points before but it’s important to keep tying current events to the general thesis of who’s agenda does which event serve and why.  Alberta isn’t California for a lot of reasons, but the big one is whose debt-ox is gored by their acts of rebellion.

#9 — Removing the Putinator?

In April, Russia goes to the polls. 2023 ended with many bangs, escalations against Russian civilians with western-supplied weapons. 2024 continues this trend. Nothing about the war in Ukraine is over, even though most people want it over, especially Ukrainians, Russians and the people paying the bills for this globalist culling of Slavs.

Putin will win re-election. Of that there is no doubt. What also is not in doubt is the Neocon crazies continuing to degrade his position through attrition and embarrassment. Putin is no immune to political fatigue, despite what some folks may believe. Yes, he’s made a strong case to the Russian people that this is a civilizational war with the West. But everyone tires of seeing their sons come home in body bags.

He’s fighting a war against people who do not care about anyone except themselves. They will sacrifice us all to their ends. Like Trump, they will do anything to stop him from stopping them. So, we cannot rule out the possibility of one of these assassination attempts against Putin succeeding.

The point of the civilian bombings is to empower the hard core reactionaries in the Kremlin who feels Putin is too soft. Martin Armstrong has written extensively about this and I’m hard-pressed to disagree with him about this part of the story.

Putin’s temperance in the face of Neocon insanity has changed a lot of hearts and minds over the past two years. I run into new people all the time who I wouldn’t expect to see this and they offer to me that we’re damn lucky he’s running Russia.

Every crazy infrastructure attack — NS2, Kerch Bridge, supply ship in port, civilian bombing — radicalizes a few more Russians but also breaks the spell about the evil Putler for many in the West.

Armstrong has targeted his Economic Confidence Model’s turning point as May 7th, the day of Putin’s next inauguration. Will this be the time GCHQ finally gets their man?

Even if Putin survives and takes office, something is likely to happen surrounding Ukraine this summer that will ensure the war goes into 2025 and beyond.

Sec. of State Antony Blinken met with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman to keep the Israeli/Gaza situation from metastasizing further. Is Blinken suddenly becoming anti-war after ginning up three different major conflicts in as many years?

Hellz no. He’s a neocon through and through. Any ‘pause’ in any conflict is simply an admission that we’re not prepared for escalation today, so let’s have a ‘ceasefire’ so they can reload. Or are people still confused about what the Minsk Accords were all about?

Putin understands that when the West, especially British-aligned US actors, offer a ceasefire that means it’s time to step up operations, not down. This is why Russia pressures Ukraine across the entire front, probing for weaknesses, degrading their capabilities.

Ukraine will look like it’s on the back burner in 2024, but it will be the biggest poison pill for whoever is president in 2025. It will leave Putin with few options but to continue focusing his economic output on it.

#10 — No Recession in 2024

The hardest part of making predictions in a chaotic world isn’t just that the data is faulty, it is that the past isn’t much of a guideline beyond what you can expect from the main actors. We understand how the Fed views the economy. We know what the Globalists’ goal structure looks like. We can even know how a lot of these things meet and interact.

What we don’t know is how the people will react to them and what their overall behavior will be. And that, ultimately, is what decides whether there will or won’t be an economic contraction. Recessions are very technically-defined things. Two consecutive quarters of contracting spending, GDP contraction.

In the real world it’s far more complex and difficult. Last year I stuck to the technical definition of a recession and was right. GDP growth never went negative. Deficits are high, while the Fed is doing QT Congress is outspending the Fed’s balance sheet improvements. Something will give in 2024.

Barring a six-sigma event, which so far we have avoided in the capital markets, there won’t be a recession in the US in 2024 either. We needed one of those in 2023 to set the stage for this year. We didn’t get one. We may get one this year, but that would set up for the big event in 2025.

Think the repo event of 2007 setting up Bear Stearns, then Lehman Bros. The Repo seizure in September 2019 setting up the COVID crisis, the attack on Oil prices, the CARES Act and the return to the zero-bound in 2020.

There needs to be that inciting incident beforehand to get the main event later, with at least a six-month lag effect. We’re still at least three months from the Reverse Repo Facility running out of money and then there will still be months of set up before the banks have a crisis of reserves.

So, with that said, and even if fiscal ‘sanity’ begins to take root in Washington as we approach the election this November, there is too much money still floating around to see spending go negative. Sorry, folks, but in the GDP game, no ticky, no washy. You have to have the spending stop to get the recession.

We may buy hookers, blow, and South American revolutionaries with it… wait, this isn’t the 80’s…

We may buy Pornhub subs, Cheetos, and Ukrainian Naht-sees with it, but it’s still spending.

The question is what will we buy that money, not Hunter Biden.

If the Fed cuts rates a little bit (50-75 bps in 2024), begins talk of tapering QT even starting in Q3, then we’ll see things get tougher, but not so much that spending retards overall. The quality of the spending will go down the value chain, towards lower-order good (food, shelter, etc.). But the spending will still be there.

I’m with Joseph Wang on this, per his latest interview with Blockworks. Lower rates, as we’ve seen in the mortgage markets, will improve Main St.’s balance sheets to the point where we can and will muddle through. Inflation will still be higher than anyone wants. It may suck, but from a household spending perspective, so what?

https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status/...4119931233

That won’t necessitate something radical from the Fed. What will is a sovereign debt crisis from a major government collapsing. But, I still maintain that is much more likely somewhere other than the US (despite Obama’s gaslighting) first. When Reuters is running articles like this:

    Far-right rise could make Europe ungovernable – EU liberals https://t.co/88VPvoYSqN pic.twitter.com/OGomF44SAa

    — Reuters (@Reuters) January 9, 2024

That’s where you should be looking. If you want your black swan event to undermine this call just think about what Europe will do to prevent Viktor Orban from running the European Council for more than the normal six-month term.

All of the trends highlighted last year are still happening this year. The US dollar is still stronger than anyone expected. De-dollarization is still happening, it’s just that De-euroization of global trade happened first (in 2023). Iraq is now openly hostile to US military presence there. US troops in Syria are coming under increasingly heavy fire in retaliation, I think, for the UK and Ukraine attacking civilians in Belgorod.

And the Globalist soul-sucking vampires still bear their fangs, and make pronouncements of how much blood we owe them. But, the less said about Ursula Von der Leyen the better at this point.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/01/thom...overnable/

Year of the Dragon: Silk Roads, BRICS Roads, Sino-Roads
By Pepe Escobar
January 13, 2024


As we enter incandescent 2024, four major trends will define the progress of interconnected Eurasia.

1.Financial/trade integration will be the norm. Russia and Iran already integrated their financial message transfer systems, bypassing SWIFT and trading in rials and rubles. Russia-China already settle their accounts in rubles and yuan, coupling immense Chinese industrial capacity with immense Russian resources.

2.The economic integration of the post-Soviet space, tilting towards Eurasia, will predominantly flow not so much via the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) but interlinked with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

3.There will be no significant pro-Western inroads in the Heartland: the Central Asian “stans” will be progressively integrated into a single Eurasia economy organized via the SCO.

4.The clash will become even more acute, pitting the Hegemon and its satellites (Europe and Japan/South Korea/Australia) against Eurasia integration, represented by the three top BRICS (Russia, China, Iran) plus the DPRK and the Arab world incorporated to BRICS 10.

On the Russian front, the inimitable Sergey Karaganov has laid down the law: “We should not deny our European roots; we should treat them with care. After all, Europe has given us a lot. But Russia must move forward. And forward does not mean to the West, but to the East and the South. That is where the future of humanity lies.”

And that leads us to the Dragon – in the Year of the Dragon.

The Mao and Deng road maps

There were a whopping 3.68 billion Chinese trips by rail in 2023 – an all-time record.

China is fast on the way to become an AI global leader by 2030. Tech giant Baidu, for instance, recently released Ernie Bot to rival ChatGPT. AI in China is expanding fast on healthcare, education, and entertainment.

Efficiency is the key. Chinese scientists have developed the ACCEL chip – capable of performing 4.6 quadrillion operations per second, in comparison to NVIDIA’s A100, which delivers 0.312 quadrillion operations per second of deep learning performance.

China graduates no less than one million more STEM students than the U.S., year after year. This goes way beyond AI. Asian nations always reach the top 20% in science and mathematics competitions.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) may be lousy on geopolitics. But at least they did a public service showing nations that lead the planet in 44 critical technology sectors.

China is number one, leading on 37 sectors. The U.S. leads on 7. Everyone else leads zero sectors. These include Defense, space, robotics, energy, the environment, biotechnology, advanced materials, key quantum technology and of course AI.

How did China get here? It’s quite enlightening today to revisit a 1996 tome by Maurice Mesner: The Deng Xiaoping Era: An Inquiry into the Fate of Chinese Socialism, 1978-1994.

First of all, one needs to know what happened under Mao:

“From 1952 to the mid-1970s, net agricultural output in China increased at an average per annum rate of 2.5 percent, whereas the figure for the most intensive period of Japan’s industrialization (from 1868 to 1912) was 1.7 percent.”

Across the industrial sphere, all indicators went up: steel production; coal; cement; timber; electric power; crude oil; chemical fertilizers. “By the mid-1970s, China was also producing substantial numbers of jet airplanes, heavy tractors, railway locomotives, and modern oceangoing vessels. The People’s Republic also became a significant nuclear power, complete with intercontinental ballistic missiles. Its first successful atomic bomb test was held in 1964, the first hydrogen bomb was produced in 1967, and a satellite was launched into orbit in 1970.”

Blame it on Mao: he transformed China “from one of the world’s most backward agrarian countries into the sixth-largest industrial power by the mid-1970s.” On most key social and demographic indicators, China compared favorably not only with India and Pakistan in South Asia but also with “’middle-income’ countries whose per capita GNP was five times that of China.”

All these breakthroughs laid down the path for Deng: “The higher yields obtained on individual family farms during the early Deng era would not have been possible had it not been for the vast irrigation and flood-control projects – dams, irrigation works, and river dikes – constructed by collectivized peasants in the 1950s and 1960s.”

Of course there were distortions – as the Deng drive produced a de facto capitalist economy presided by a bureaucratic bourgeoisie: “As has been true of the histories of all capitalist economies, the power of the state was very much involved in establishing China’s labor market. Indeed, in China a highly repressive state apparatus played a particularly direct and coercive role in the commodification of labor, a process that has proceeded with a rapidity and on a scale that is historically unprecedented.”

It remains an inextinguishable source of debate to what extent this fabulous economic Great Leap Forward under Deng generated calamitous social consequences.

The Empire of kakistocracy

As the Xi era definitely tackles – and tries to solve – the drama, what makes it even more complicated is the constant interference of the notorious “structural contradictions” between China and the Hegemon.

China-bashing is the number one politically correct game across the Beltway – and that’s bound to go out of control in 2024. Assuming a Democratic debacle next November, there are few doubts a Republican presidency – Trump or no Trump – will unleash Cold War 3.0 or 4.0, with China, not Russia, as the top threat.

Then there is the upcoming Taiwan election. If pro-independence candidates win it, incandescence will exponentially rise. Now imagine that compounded with a rabid Sinophobe occupant of the White House.

Even when China was militarily weak, the Hegemon could not defeat it, either in Korea or in Vietnam. There is less than zero chance Washington would defeat Beijing on a South China Sea battlefield now.

The American problem is encapsulated in a Perfect Storm.

Hegemon hard and soft power have been hurled down a black void with the imminent, cosmic NATO humiliation in Ukraine, compounded with complicity with the Gaza genocide.

Simultaneously, Hegemon global financial power is about to take a very hard hit as the Russia-China strategic partnership leading BRICS 10 starts offering quite viable alternatives to the Global South.

Chinese scholars, in priceless exchanges, always remind their Western interlocutors that History has been a consistent playground pitting aristocratic and or/plutocratic oligarchies against each other. The collective West now happens to be “led” by the most toxic variety of plutocracy: kakistocracy.

What Chinese qualify, correctly, as “crusader nations” are now significantly exhausted – economically, socially, and militarily. Worse: nearly totally de-industrialized. Those with a functioning brain among the crusaders at least have understood that “decoupling” from China will be a major disaster.

None of that eliminates their arrogant/ignorant drive for a war on China – even as Beijing has exercised immense restraint by not giving them any excuse to start another Forever War.

Instead, Beijing is reversing Hegemon tactics – as in sanctioning the Hegemon and assorted vassals (Japan, South Korea) on rare earth imports. Even more effective is the concerted Russia-China drive to bypass the U.S. dollar and weaken the euro – with full support of BRICS 10 members, Opec+ members, EAEU members and most SCO members.

The Taiwan riddle

The Chinese masterplan, in a nutshell, is a thing of beauty: to finish off the “rules-based international order” without firing a shot.

Taiwan will remain the prime not-yet-engaged battlefield. Roughly, it’s fair to argue that the majority of the population of Taiwan does not want unification; at the same time, they don’t want an American-engineered war.

They want, essentially, the current status quo. China is not in a hurry: Deng’s master plan pointed to reunification sometime before 2049.

The Hegemon, on the other hand, is in a tremendous hurry: it’s all about Divide and Rule, all over again, promoting chaos and destabilizing China’s inexorable rise.

Beijing tracks literally anything that moves in Taiwan – via monumental, meticulous dossiers. Beijing knows that for Taipei to thrive in a peaceful environment, it needs to negotiate while it still has something to negotiate with.

Every Taiwanese with a brain – and there are plenty of first-class scientific brains in the island – knows they can’t expect Americans to die fighting for them. First of all because they know the Hegemon won’t dare fighting a conventional war with China, because the Hegemon will lose – badly (the Pentagon gamed all options). And there won’t be a nuclear war either.

Chinese scholars are fond of reminding us that when the Middle Kingdom was totally fragmented in the 19th century under the Qing dynasty (1644-1912), “the Sino-Manchu ruling class was incapable of relinquishing their self-image and of taking the draconian necessary steps.”

The same applies to the Exceptionalists now – even as they go on serial somersaults trying to preserve their own, mythological self-image: Narcissus drowned in a pool of his own making.

It’s possible to advance that the Year of the Dragon will be a year where Sovereignty reigns. Hegemon fits of Hybrid War rage and collaborationist comprador elites will be obstacles constantly hampering the Global South. Yet at least there will be three poles with the spine, the resources, the organization, the vision and the sense of Universal History to take the fight towards a more equal and just system to the next level: China, Russia and Iran.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/01/no_a...ino-roads/
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#5
Two Big Risks in 2024-20225: an Economic Slowdown and Expanding Hegemonic Conflicts
By Dr. Rodrigue Tremblay
January 16, 2024


“When every country turned to protect its own private interest, the world public interest went down the drain, and with it the private interests of all.“  Charles Kindleberger (1910-2003). American economic historian, (in his book “The World Depression 1929-1939”, 1973)

“The world is a dangerous place to live—not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.” Albert Einstein (1879-1955). (As quoted in the book by Josep Maria Corredor “Conversations avec Pablo Casals“, 1955)

“I think it is the beginning of a new Cold War… I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else.” George F. Kennan (1904-2005). American diplomat and historian, (in The New York Times, May 2, 1998, about the U.S. expansion of NATO toward Russia.)

“While defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy—or of a collective death—wish for the world.“ John F. Kennedy (1917-1963), 35th U.S. President, 1961-1963, (in an important speech on Monday, June 10, 1963)

In 2024, most economies are expected to face economic headwinds. Indeed, that is why in many countries, especially in Europe and in North America, polls indicate that people’s main preoccupations are economic topics, such as the lingering inflation, high personal and public debts and the likelihood of a more or less severe economic recession.

An economic-social issue such as the influx of hordes of illegal immigrants will also be a source of concern, especially in Europe and in NorthAmerica, especially if the rates of unemployment increase.

Similarly, the ongoing bombing wars in Ukraine and in Palestine, as well as the growing tensions between the United States and China and those between the U.S. and Iran, are foreign policy issues that could raise concerns.

Important economies according to their GDP vs. smaller rich economies per capita

According to World Bank data, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States, at mid-year 2023, was $25,463 billion. This places the U.S. economy number one with 24.3 percent of the world economy.

The economy of the European Union (EU), a bloc of 27 countries, represents 21.7 percent of global GDP and is the second largest in the world. China’s economy follows in third place, with 15.0 percent of global GDP.

However, in terms of living standards (GDP per capita), small economies dominate the list, with Luxembourg ($127,580) in the lead, followed by Norway ($106,328), Ireland ($103,176) and Switzerland ($92,381).

An overview and expectations

The economic cycles of the major economies do not coincide perfectly, and vary somewhat depending on their economic structures and the economic policies followed by their governments.

The central question today is whether or not the coming economic year will be one in which major economies will be able to avoid a full-fledged economic recession.

The exuberance in the stock and bond markets seems to indicate that they are anticipating a gentle economic slowdown, driven by a marked decline in inflation and multiple cuts in interest rates to come.

The alternative situation to consider, contrary to the general optimism, could be that of a year characterized by a classic economic recession, more or less severe, a consequence of economic and financial imbalances accumulated in the past. It could be caused also by unexpected economic, financial and geopolitical shocks to come.

Currently, the general economic consensus is that the fight with higher interest rates that the main central banks are waging against inflation, (which was generated by large public deficits and by excessive monetary creation to counter the harmful economic effects of the 2020-2022 pandemic.), will succeed.

Thus, the central question boils down to whether the coming year will witness a very manageable mild economic slowdown or that many countries could rather have to go through a longer and more severe economic recession, with a minimum of two successive quarters of contracting GDP.

The American economy

Even if the U.S. economy is presently the most resilient of all, being at a virtual full employment level, with an official 3.7 percent unemployment rate, and with a rising consumer confidence, there are nevertheless some cracks appearing.

For example, the Conference Board’s leading economic index is still declining and forecasting a mild economic recession in the United States, in 2024. Also, even though U.S. employment still holds steady, job openings are declining. This could be an indication that business investment and production plans in some sectors are being adjusted downwards.

The reason why the U.S. economy is performing better than other economies, besides the contribution of its vibrant technology sector, is partly due to its heavily subsidized arms industry, which is one sector that is prosperous and in constant growth. It comprises more that 200,000 companies, the most prominent being Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX (Raytheon), General Dynamics and Boeing.

Those companies are important contributors to the industrial growth and economic prosperity of states such as Alabama, Connecticut, Virginia, Texas and California.

The European and Canadian economies

It is even possible that future economic data, to be released next March, will confirm that several European countries and Canada are already into a recession, with two quarters in a row of decline in domestic production.

An energy crisis stemming from the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is adding to the rise in interest rates in slowing down European economies, notably those of the 20 countries of the Eurozone. Presently, the German and Italian economies would seem to be the best candidates for a recession.

In Canada, the unemployment rate is still respectable at 5.8 percent. But job growth is anemic, with only 100 new jobs created last December.

Additionally, largely due to an open-door immigration policy, the Canadian population is growing at a record rate, by far the most of all industrialized countries, while employment growth stagnates. This is translating into a decline in living standards, as measured by real GDP per capita.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has even published a study, in March 2023, in which it highlighted that Canada is lagging behind developed economies in terms of the standard of living of its population, which continues to decline. The standard of living in Canada has been deteriorating since 2014, under the effect of unbridled immigration and poor general productivity growth.

Geopolitical risks

What could turn a mild economic recession into a more serious one would be an expansion of the ruinous and ongoing military conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East, or new and wider hegemonic wars to come.

In such a case, as most governments face high debt levels (i.e. total public debts greater than their yearly total domestic product), such developments would be likely to reignite inflation and cause a further surge in interest rates in years to come.

It is rare for economic conditions and geopolitical risks to be linked so closely, but unfortunately, this is the type of world we live in today.

Conclusions

The economic conundrum in 2024 is whether the expected economic slowdown will be mild and not very disruptive to labor and stock markets, or rather, whether unforeseen financial events, such as the failure of a large financial institution, could precipitate a more serious and severe global economic recession.

The geopolitical ball is murkier because the U.S. government of Joe Biden does not seem anxious to end military conflicts, even though the President had initially promised, at the start of his administration, to rely more heavily on diplomacy to resolve international disputes.

Nevertheless, the year 2024 could be an important turning point, both economically and geopolitically.

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/01/no_a...conflicts/
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