10-06-2007, 11:16 AM
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
Unusual warmth is forecast across most of the nation this winter, continuing a decade-long trend of mild winters, according to the federal Climate Prediction Center.
The above-average temperatures predicted for December through February could also worsen drought conditions across the country. Parts of all 50 states are either abnormally dry or in some level of drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported Thursday.
A mild winter could mean lower heating costs and perhaps less snow along the East Coast and in the southern Appalachians, says Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations at the climate center.
"U.S. winters have been milder-than-average for the past 10 years," Halpert says. "And we're again looking at a milder-than-average winter, nearly coast-to-coast."
The climate center's three-month winter forecast will be officially announced on Tuesday.
The USA has been unusually warm all year. Through August, the nation was 1.39 degrees above the long-term average ââ¬â the 13th-warmest year since record-keeping began in 1895.
Halpert says the only uncertain areas for temperatures this winter are in the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest, where there are equal chances for a cooler- or warmer-than-average winter.
Halpert says the climate center's "heating-degree-day projections are 3% less than the long-term average." Heating degree days measure the amount of energy needed to heat homes and businesses.
The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are the only areas forecast to be wetter than average. "This is just conjecture, but the area that might do the best for snow is the northern Rockies," Halpert says.
Winter should be drier than average across the southern part of the nation ââ¬â good news for sodden Texas but disappointing for the drought-stricken Southeast.
Jay Lawrimore, chief of the climate monitoring branch at the of the National Climatic Data Center, says 78% of the Southeast is in some stage of drought, while 24% of the region is in "exceptional drought" ââ¬â the highest level. "Since the beginning of 2007, precipitation is about half or less of what is typical in much of the Southeast," he says.
Exceptional drought conditions expanded this week to parts of North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.
Drought conditions are also plaguing the West, where 62% of the region is in some stage of drought. Lawrimore says the drought in the West can be traced to 1999, "although the expanse and severity of the drought has changed over time."
While the dry, warm forecast may not help ski areas in the Southwest, Dave Smith, director of sales and marketing at the Arizona Snowbowl in Flagstaff, isn't worried. He says the Snowbowl has had two below-par years due to mild winters ââ¬â open just 15 days in 2005-06 and 45 days in 2006-07. He's now counting on the fact that the Snowbowl hasn't had three bad years in a row.
"We're in regular preparation mode and looking forward to a great season," he says.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/...nter_N.htm
Unusual warmth is forecast across most of the nation this winter, continuing a decade-long trend of mild winters, according to the federal Climate Prediction Center.
The above-average temperatures predicted for December through February could also worsen drought conditions across the country. Parts of all 50 states are either abnormally dry or in some level of drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported Thursday.
A mild winter could mean lower heating costs and perhaps less snow along the East Coast and in the southern Appalachians, says Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations at the climate center.
"U.S. winters have been milder-than-average for the past 10 years," Halpert says. "And we're again looking at a milder-than-average winter, nearly coast-to-coast."
The climate center's three-month winter forecast will be officially announced on Tuesday.
The USA has been unusually warm all year. Through August, the nation was 1.39 degrees above the long-term average ââ¬â the 13th-warmest year since record-keeping began in 1895.
Halpert says the only uncertain areas for temperatures this winter are in the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest, where there are equal chances for a cooler- or warmer-than-average winter.
Halpert says the climate center's "heating-degree-day projections are 3% less than the long-term average." Heating degree days measure the amount of energy needed to heat homes and businesses.
The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are the only areas forecast to be wetter than average. "This is just conjecture, but the area that might do the best for snow is the northern Rockies," Halpert says.
Winter should be drier than average across the southern part of the nation ââ¬â good news for sodden Texas but disappointing for the drought-stricken Southeast.
Jay Lawrimore, chief of the climate monitoring branch at the of the National Climatic Data Center, says 78% of the Southeast is in some stage of drought, while 24% of the region is in "exceptional drought" ââ¬â the highest level. "Since the beginning of 2007, precipitation is about half or less of what is typical in much of the Southeast," he says.
Exceptional drought conditions expanded this week to parts of North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.
Drought conditions are also plaguing the West, where 62% of the region is in some stage of drought. Lawrimore says the drought in the West can be traced to 1999, "although the expanse and severity of the drought has changed over time."
While the dry, warm forecast may not help ski areas in the Southwest, Dave Smith, director of sales and marketing at the Arizona Snowbowl in Flagstaff, isn't worried. He says the Snowbowl has had two below-par years due to mild winters ââ¬â open just 15 days in 2005-06 and 45 days in 2006-07. He's now counting on the fact that the Snowbowl hasn't had three bad years in a row.
"We're in regular preparation mode and looking forward to a great season," he says.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/...nter_N.htm
